Climate Delusions 2 – Use of Linear Warming Trends to defend Human-caused Warming

This post is part of a planned series about climate delusions. These are short pieces of where the climate alarmists are either deluding themselves, or deluding others, about the evidence to support the global warming hypothesis; the likely implications for changing the climate; the consequential implications of changing / changed climate; or associated policies to either mitigate or adapt to the harms. The delusion consists is I will make suggestions of ways to avoid the delusions.

In the previous post I looked at how for the Karl el al 2015 paper to be a pause-buster required falsely showing a linear trend in the data. In particular it required the selection of the 1950-1999 period for comparing with the twenty-first century warming. Comparison with the previous 25 years would shows a marked decrease in the rate of warming. Now consider again the claims made in the summary.

Newly corrected and updated global surface temperature data from NOAA’s NCEI do not support the notion of a global warming “hiatus.”  Our new analysis now shows that the trend over the period 1950–1999, a time widely agreed as having significant anthropogenic global warming, is 0.113°C decade−1 , which is virtually indistinguishable from the trend over the period 2000–2014 (0.116°C decade−1 ). …..there is no discernable (statistical or otherwise) decrease in the rate of warming between the second half of the 20th century and the first 15 years of the 21st century.

…..

…..the IPCC’s statement of 2 years ago—that the global surface temperature “has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years”—is no longer valid.

The “pause-buster” linear warming trend needs to be put into context. In terms of timing the Karl reevaluation of the global temperature data was published in the run-up to the COP21 Paris meeting which aimed to get global agreement on reducing global greenhouse gas emissions to near zero by the end of the century. Having a consensus of the World’s leading climate experts admitting that warming was not happening strongly implied that there was no big problem to be dealt with. But is demonstrating a linear warming trend – even if it could be done without the use of grossly misleading statements like in Karl paper – sufficient to show that warming is caused by greenhouse gas emissions?

The IPCC estimates that about three-quarters of all greenhouse emissions are of carbon dioxide. The BBC’s recently made a graphic of the emission types, reproduced as Figure 1.

 

There is a strong similarity between the rise in CO2 emissions and the rise in CO2 levels. Although I will not demonstrate this here, the emissions data estimates are available from CDIAC where my claim an be verified. The issue arises with the rate of increase in CO2 levels. The full Mauna Loa CO2 record shows a marked increase in CO2 levels since the end of the 1950s, as reproduced in Figure 2.

What is not so clear is that the rate of rise is increasing. In fact in the 1960s CO2 increased on average by less than 1ppm per annum, whereas in the last few years it has exceeded over 2ppm per annum. But the supposed eventual impact of the impact of the rise in CO2 is though a doubling. That implies that if CO2 rises at a constant percentage rate, and the full impact is near instantaneous, then the rate of warming produced from CO2 alone will be linear. In Figure 3 I have shown the percentage annual increase in CO2 levels.

Of note from the graph

  • In every year of the record the CO2 level has increased.
  • The warming impact of the rise in CO2 post 2000 was twice that of the 1960s.
  • There was a marked slowdown in the rate of rise in CO2 in the 1990s, but it was only for a few years below the long term average.
  • After 1998 CO2 growth rates increased to a level greater for any for any previous period.

The empirical data of Mauna Loa CO2 levels shows what should be an increasing impact on average temperatures. The marked slowdown, or pause, in global warming post 2000, is therefore inconsistent with CO2 having a dominant, or even a major role, in producing that warming. Quoting a linear rate of warming over the whole period is people deluding both themselves and others to the empirical failure of the theory.

Possible Objections

You fail to isolate the short-term and long-term effects of CO2 on temperature.

Reply: The lagged, long-term effects would have to be both larger and negative for a long period to account for the divergence. There has so far been no successful and clear modelling, just a number of attempts that amount to excuses.

Natural variations could account for the slowdown.

Reply: Equally natural variations could account for much, if not all, of the average temperature rise.in preceding decades. Non-verifiable constructs that contradict real-world evidence, are for those who delude themselves or others.  Further, if natural factors can be a stronger influence on global average temperature change for more than decade than human-caused factors, then this is a tacit admission that human-caused factors are not a dominant influence on global average temperature change.

Kevin Marshall

 

Climate Delusions 1 – Karl et al 2015 propaganda

This is the first is a planned series of climate delusions. These are short pieces of where the climate alarmists are either deluding themselves, or deluding others, about the evidence to support the global warming hypothesis; the likely implications for changing the climate; the consequential implications of changing / changed climate; or associated policies to either mitigate or adapt to the harms. The delusion consists is I will make suggestions of ways to avoid the delusions.

Why is the Karl et al 2015 paper, Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus proclaimed to be the pause-buster?

The concluding comments to the paper gives the following boast

Newly corrected and updated global surface temperature data from NOAA’s NCEI do not support the notion of a global warming “hiatus.”  …..there is no discernable (statistical or otherwise) decrease in the rate of warming between the second half of the 20th century and the first 15 years of the 21st century. Our new analysis now shows that the trend over the period 1950–1999, a time widely agreed as having significant anthropogenic global warming (1), is 0.113°C decade−1 , which is virtually indistinguishable from the trend over the period 2000–2014 (0.116°C decade−1 ). Even starting a trend calculation with 1998, the extremely warm El Niño year that is often used as the beginning of the “hiatus,” our global temperature trend (1998–2014) is 0.106°C decade−1 —and we know that is an underestimate because of incomplete coverage over the Arctic. Indeed, according to our new analysis, the IPCC’s statement of 2 years ago—that the global surface temperature “has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years”—is no longer valid.

An opinion piece in Science, Much-touted global warming pause never happened, basically repeats these claims.

In their paper, Karl’s team sums up the combined effect of additional land temperature stations, corrected commercial ship temperature data, and corrected ship-to-buoy calibrations. The group estimates that the world warmed at a rate of 0.086°C per decade between 1998 and 2012—more than twice the IPCC’s estimate of about 0.039°C per decade. The new estimate, the researchers note, is much closer to the rate of 0.113°C per decade estimated for 1950 to 1999. And for the period from 2000 to 2014, the new analysis suggests a warming rate of 0.116°C per decade—slightly higher than the 20th century rate. “What you see is that the slowdown just goes away,” Karl says.

The Skeptical Science Temperature trend data gives very similar results. 1950-1999 gives a linear trend of 0.113°C decade−1 against 0.112°C decade−1 and for 2000-2014 gives 0.097°C decade−1 against 0.116°C decade−1. There is no real sign if a slowdown,

However, looking at any temperature anomaly  chart, whether Karl. NASA Gistemp, or HADCRUT4, it is clear that the period 1950-1975 showed little or no warming, whilst the last quarter of the twentieth century show significant warming.  This is confirmed by the Sks trend calculator figures in Figure 1.

What can be clearly seen is the claim of no slowdown in the twenty-first century compared with previous years is dependent on the selection of the period. To repeat the Karl et. al concluding claim.

Indeed, according to our new analysis, the IPCC’s statement of 2 years ago—that the global surface temperature “has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years”—is no longer valid.

The period 1976-2014 is in the middle of the range, and from the Sks temperature trend is .160. The trend is significantly higher than 0.097, so a slowdown has taken place. Any remotely competent peer review would have checked what is the most startling claim. The comparative figures from HADCRUT4 are shown in Figure 2.

With the HADCRUT4 temperature trend it is not so easy to claim that there is no significant slowdown. But the full claim in the Karl et al paper to be a pause-buster can only be made by a combination of recalculating the temperature anomaly figures and selection of the 1950-1999 period for comparing the twenty-first century warming. It is the latter part that makes the “pause-buster” claims a delusion.

Kevin Marshall

 

Warming Bias in Temperature Data due to Consensus Belief not Conspiracy

In a Cliscep article Science: One Damned Adjustment After Another? Geoff Chambers wrote:-

So is the theory of catastrophic climate change a conspiracy? According to the strict dictionary definition, it is, in that the people concerned clearly conferred together to do something wrong – namely introduce a consistent bias in the scientific research, and then cover it up.

This was in response to last the David Rose article in the Mail on Sunday, about claims the infamous the Karl et al 2015 breached America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) own rules on scientific intergrity.

I would counter this claim about conspiracy in respect of temperature records, even in the strict dictionary definition. Still less does it conform to a conspiracy theory in the sense of some group with a grasp of what they believe to be the real truth, act together to provide an alternative to that truth. or divert attention and resources away from that understanding of that truth. like an internet troll. A clue as to know why this is the case comes from on of the most notorious Climategate emails. Kevin Trenberth to Micheal Mann on Mon, 12 Oct 2009 and copied to most of the leading academics in the “team” (including Thomas R. Karl).

The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.

It is the first sentence that was commonly quoted, but it is the last part is the most relevant for temperatures anomalies. There is inevitably a number of homogenisation runs to get a single set of anomalies. For example the Reykjavik temperature data was (a) adjusted by the Iceland Met office by standard procedures to allow for known locals biases (b) adjusted for GHCNv2 (the “raw data”) (c) adjusted again in GHCNv3 (d) homogenized by NASA to be included in Gistemp.

There are steps that I have missed. Certainly Gistemp homogenize the data quite frequently for new sets of data. As Paul Matthews notes, adjustments are unstable. Although one data set might on average be pretty much the same as previous ones, there will be quite large anomalies thrown out every time the algorithms are re-run for new data. What is more, due to the nature of the computer algorithms, there is no audit trail, therefore the adjustments are largely unexplainable with reference to the data before, let alone with reference to the original thermometer readings. So how does one know whether the adjustments are reasonable or not, except through a belief in how the results ought to look? In the case of the climatologists like Kevin Trenberth and Thomas R. Karl, variations that show warmer than the previous run will be more readily accepted as correct rather than variations that show cooler. That is, they will find reasons why a particular temperature data set now shows greater higher warming than before. but will reject as outliers results that show less warming than before. It is the same when choosing techniques, or adjusting for biases in the data. This is exacerbated when a number of different bodies with similar belief systems try to seek a consensus of results, like  Zeke Hausfather alludes to in his article at the CarbonBrief. Rather than verifying results in the real world, temperature data seeks to conform to the opinions of others with similar beliefs about the world.

Kevin Marshall