The latest paper from Lewandowsky is
Conspiracist ideation in the blogosphere in response to research on conspiracist ideation : Stephan Lewandowsky, John Cook1,, Klaus Oberauer and Michael Hubble
The authors explain
This article analyzes the response of the climate blogosphere to the publication of LOG12. We identify and trace the hypotheses that emerged in response to LOG12 and that questioned the validity of the paper’s conclusions. Using established criteria to identify conspiracist ideation, we show that many of the hypotheses exhibited conspiratorial content and counterfactual thinking.
In order to respond, it is first necessary to gain a proper understanding of the original questionnaire and the conclusions the authors reached. This posting starts with examining the forty questions to see if the questions were balanced or designed to support the authors’ hypotheses. The full list can be found at Joanne Nova’s website.
Free-market Politics Questions
| 1. An economic system based on free markets unrestrained by government interference automatically works best to meet human needs. |
| 2. I support the free-market system but not at the expense of environmental quality |
| 3. The free-market system may be efficient for resource allocation, but it is limited in its capacity to promote social justice |
| 4. The preservation of the free market system is more important than localized environmental concerns |
| 5. Free and unregulated markets pose important threats to sustainable development |
| 6. The free-market system is likely to promote unsustainable consumption |
There were two areas that the questionnaire tried to test around the motivated rejection of climate science – free-market ideology and conspiracist ideation. The first six questions dealt with belief in free markets. There are a number of issues.
First, those who believe in free-markets are libertarians. They value individual liberty above all else and see laissez-faire capitalism as the only means to achieve this. The reason for many rejecting climate change policies is a belief that it would lead to a suppression of individual choice. They can also see that those who oppose the “scientific” consensus are stigmatized, and criticism suppressed. They might see historical parallels in the rise of communism, Nazism and in the McCarthyist era. Without such questions, rejection of the consensus could be viewed as much shallower and more dogmatic than is actually the case.
Second is that these questions are framed by somebody who clearly does not understand nor like the market mechanism. Most free-marketers would not view it a structural system, but a spontaneous order. Nor would they see a market mechanism as being antagonistic to development or preserving the environment.
Third is that there are a large group of people who may general reject environmentalism, but be quite centrist in their political views. Conversely, there might be some people who are highly antagonist to capitalism, but also sceptical of global warming. Without questions for a broad range of political views, responses will be more polarized than is actually the case.
In conclusion, these six questions seem aimed at marginalizing sceptics.
Conspiracy Theory Questions
A total of 15 questions
| 7. The Iraq War in 2003 was launched for reasons other than to remove WMD from Iraq |
| 8. A powerful and secretive group known as the New World Order are planning to eventually rule the world through an autonomous world government, which would replace sovereign governments |
| 9. SARS was produced under laboratory conditions as a biological weapon |
| 10. The US government had foreknowledge about the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, but allowed the attack to take place to as to be able to enter the Second World War. |
| 11. US Agencies intentionally created the AIDS epidemic and administered it to Black and gay men in the 1970’s |
| 12. The assassination of Martin Luther King Jr was the results of an organized conspiracy by US government agencies such as the CIA and FBI |
| 13. The Apollo Moon landings never happened and were stages in a Hollywood film studio |
| 14. Area 51 in Nevada US is a secretive military base that contains hidden alien spacecraft and or alien bodies |
| 15. The assassination of John F Kennedy was not committed by the lone gunman, Lee Harvey Oswald, but was rather a detailed, organized conspiracy to kill the President |
| 16. The US government allowed the 9/11 attacks to take place so that it would have an excuse to achieve foreign (eh wars in Afghanistan and Iraq) and domestic (eg attacks on civil liberties) goals that had been determined prior to the attacks |
| 17. In July 1947, the US military recovered the wreckage of an alien craft from Roswell, New Mexico and covered up the fact |
| 18. Princess Diana’s death was not an accident but rather an organised assassination by members of the British royal family who disliked her |
| 19. The Oklahoma City Bombers, Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nicols did not act alone but rather received assistance from Neo Nazi groups |
| 20. The claim that the climate is changing due to emissions from fossil fuels is a hoax perpetrated by corrupt scientists who wish to spend more taxpayer money on climate “research”. |
| 21. The Coca Cola company intentionally changed to an inferior formular with the intent of driving up demand for their classic product, later reintroducing it for their financial gain. |
When I first looked at these questions it struck me that some were related to the climate issue. Therefore I left them out as biasing the results.
I think there are five broad categories of question, which I have colour-coded.
Blue questions are neutral to the climate change issue.
Red questions are those that see the climate consensus as some sort of conspiracy.
Green questions are those that see motivations for rejecting the climate consensus as some sort of conspiracy.
Pink Questions are conspiracies that those who reject the climate consensus might believe in, but unrelated to the climate issue.
Brown Questions are conspiracies that those who accept the climate consensus might believe in, but unrelated to the climate issue.
What is clear is that there are no questions that ask if scepticism was underpinned by of some sort of conspiracy. A common theme is that denial being promoted by secretive funding by fossil fuel interests. For instance searching “Koch” on Desmogblog reveals 2440 hits. With such a question, there would have been symmetry. I have rated question 7 (WMD) as possibly appealing more to the climate consensus types, as they tend to be more to the left of centre and certainly are mostly anti George Bush. This was the only question NOT reported in the LOG12 paper. So two conspiracy-type questions specifically appealing to sceptics, and none (reported) that no conspiracy-type questions specifically appealing to “pro-science” types out of 14 would have been sufficient to bias the results towards “finding” that sceptics are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories.
Climate Change Science Questions
| 22. I believe that burning fossil fuels increases atmospheric temperature to some measurable degree |
| 23. I believe that the burning of fossil fuels on the scale observed over the last 50 years has increased atmospheric temperature to an appreciable degree |
| 24. I believe that the burning of fossil fuels on the scale observed over the last 50 years will cause serious negative changes to the planet’s climate, unless there is a substantial switch to non-CO2 emitting energy sources |
| 25. I believe that the burning of fossil fuels on the scale observed over the last 50 years has caused serious negative changes to the planet’s climate |
There is an complete absence of questions about future projections of accelerating warming; or of future catastrophes well in excess of anything so far observed; of the strength of the science or the uncertainties; our trust in what scientists are telling us; nor of the ability of policy to do anything successfully combat it. These are the questions that many sceptics, including myself, are grappling with. As Warren Meyer concludes, it is the projected catastrophe that sceptics “deny”. Joanna Nova, Lord Monckton, Prof Richard Lindzen, Anthony Watts, Bishop Hill (Andrew Montford), Prof Bob Carter and Lord Nigel Lawson all recognize to some extent that humans might be causing some global warming and that this may continue.
Many, like Lord Lawson (and myself) conclude that the policies to “combat climate change” are both ineffective and hugely harmful to economic prosperity, yet there is no recognition of this aspect. The whole thrust of the questions appears to be one of polarization, making sure that those who reject the consensus is as large as possible.
Environment questions
| 26. The problem of CFC;s is no longer a serious threat to the ozone layer |
| 27. The problem of acid rain is no longer a serious threat to the global ecosystem |
Two questions on the environment, that quite rightly see where people stand on other environment issues.
Personal Questions
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Six psychology questions. They do not appear in the conclusions of the paper. This might be because there was no relationship to respondents’ self-esteem and their views on climate science.
Established Science Questions
| 33. The HIV virus causes AIDS |
| 34. Smoking causes lung cancer |
| 35. Human CO2 emissions cause climate change |
| 36. Out of 100 medical students how many do you think believe that the HIV Virus causes AIDS |
| 37. Out of 100 medical students how many do you think believe that smoking causes lung cancer? |
| 38. Out of 100 climate scientists how many do you think believe that human CO2 emissions cause climate change? |
There are two sections. Three questions on what the respondent thinks about three propositions and three questions of about where the respondent thinks the scientific consensus lies. The questions are somewhat sneaky. That HIV causes AIDS and smoking causes lung cancer is quite clear to the vast majority. But human CO2 emissions causing “climate change” is something more ambiguous to anyone who thinks about the issue. Does a small amount of warming really mean a change in the climate? Is it a change of climate system – from rainforest to savannah for instance? Or is it the same climate type, but with more extreme weather events. As a political concept in the minds of the authors it might be quite clear, but to respondents who have a less polarized view of the world it may not be so clear. The ordering is quite clear though. The questions are viewed by the question-setters are equally valid, so answering the third question differently is indicating to the respondent something of how they are viewed.
Conclusions
The questions appear to have been devised to obtain verification of the hypothesis that rejection of climate science is motivated by belief in free-market ideology and due to a conspiracist ideation. In more colloquial language, the questions were biased to support the view that denial of climate science is due to free-market ideologues who are incapable of evaluating the evidence. The questions on free-market ideology betray the question-setters prejudices. The questions on conspiracy theories are show something of the question-setters own beliefs or a deliberate ploy to bias the results in the desired direction. The questions on climate science show a desire to show consensus amongst pro-science views, along with trying to ignore the possibility that policy questions are a matter of contention as well as the “science”.
Kevin Marshall
ManicBeancounter 