All posts tagged Climate Change

To compare Environmentalists to Baptists is to insult Baptists

The THES, directed at a British audience, compares BP and environmentalists to bootleggers and Baptists – they have common cause.

However, some British Baptists may take deep offence at environmentalists being likened to them as (from the mainstream viewpoint of the Baptist Union of Great Britain) the following tends to be true.

1)      Each person should read the Bible (their data) and come to their own conclusions. They try not to overstate their case, but to come to conclusions after reflection and prayer.

2)      They are proud of their history as non-conformists and dissenters. As such they believe in religious liberty.

3)      The understanding of theology is not settled, and there are quite valid differences of opinion. There is room for doubt.

4)      Resolution of debate is not by a few experts handing down an opinion. It is from discussion and mutual understanding at the local level, to which all believers can contribute.

5)      You will not find these British Baptists looking for signs of the end times in every minor event, or proclaiming that those of other denominations or faiths are agents of the Devil.

6)      When studying their religion, contemporary theology tries to put meaning of the text in the context of what has gone before and after. Also, they look in the context of the time and place when the passage was written. Further, they would look at the original text in Hebrew or Greek. The antithesis would be to cherry-pick a few juicy quotes, mistranslate from the Hebrew and Greek, add in some unsupported assertions, add a good dash of sensationalism and proclaim loudly.

Found via Bishop Hill

A few Baptist blogs to demonstrate the point are Baptist Bookworm, Nah then, Andy Goodliff and Sean the Baptist.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 30/07/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Christianity, Climate Change, Eco-Fanatics
Tagged , , , ,

Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 30/07/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/07/30/to-compare-environmentalists-to-baptists-is-to-insult-baptists/

Tackling Fuel Poverty OR Tackling Climate Change

John Leech, MP for Manchester Withington makes a valiant, but failed, attempt to reconcile tackling fuel poverty with combating climate change. The reason’s why such an attempt will always fail are as follows:-

  1. Reducing carbon emissions by 80% will mean moving into zero-carbon fuels. Nuclear power is the cheapest alternative, but still more expensive than fossil fuels, especially when decommissioning at the end in taken into account. Other alternatives – wind and solar – are not only astronomically more expensive per unit produced, but also increase the unit cost of back-up fossil fuel power stations.
  2. Then we have the carbon trading schemes. These act as a cost to pollute. They will only become effective if they are made much scarcer and therefore much more expensive.
  3. For the poor, we could then give them huge grants to insulate their homes and get more fuel-efficient heating systems. However, although some gains can be relatively cheap (loft insulation and thermostatic controls on radiators), the costs mount steeply to gain large reductions. Replacing boilers and radiators, putting in new doors and windows, or cavity wall insulation, are all highly expensive. The payback period is many years, or in some cases not at all (with interest costs taken into account).
  4. The elderly are disincentivised to reduce consumption by the winter fuel allowance. Yet rising fuel costs will lead to calls to increase this subsidy as well.
  5. Whilst in the UK we pay through the nose for non-fossil fuels, oil prices will continue to rise as demand from developing countries continues to increase.

 

Fuel poverty will only reduce substantially if fuel costs come down. That will only happen if someone comes up with a cheaper, clean alternative to fossil fuels. That will not happen for a generation or more. Subsidising alternative energy sources that will always be much more expensive than oil is currently may divert attention away from that search. It is the poor who will suffer from most.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 15/07/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Climate Change, Liberal Democrats, Manchester
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 15/07/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/07/15/tackling-fuel-poverty-or-tackling-climate-change/

Climate Tipping Points – The Real Conclusion beneath Scientists Opinion

The Independent reports on a new paper about the likelihood of a climatic tipping point being reached by 2200. How did they achieve this? Have they come up with a new wonder-model? Or by achieving a fundamental refinement of the existing models? No, the answer is more mundane. They interviewed 14 leading scientists on climate change, asking them some sophisticated (but leading) questions. It is an opinion poll, with a biased and insignificant sample. But it is revealing about the quality of climate change “science”.

  For instance consider the following from the abstract.

 

Quote 1

“The width and median values of the probability distributions elicited from the different experts for future global mean temperature change under the specified forcing trajectories vary considerably.”

 

   I thought statistical results could only come from statistical analysis, not experts reviewing the literature.

 

Quote 2

“For a forcing trajectory that stabilized at 7 Wm-2 in 2200, 13 of the 14 experts judged the probability that the climate system would undergo, or be irrevocably committed to, a “basic state change” as ≥0.5.”

 

   In science, a probability can only be calculated from the data, and can be subjected to a battery of tests for robustness. In common parlance probabilities are used as an expression of opinion. Like the IPCC forecasts for temperature the distinction is blurred. In this case it appears to be the latter, so should be clearly stated as such in a scientific journal.

   A second problem is the forcing trajectory being stabilised at 7 Wm-2. That is on top of the existing 324 Wm-2, a 2% rise (See IPCC AR4 page 96). The current greenhouse effect makes average global temperatures of 14oC up to 33oC higher than they would have otherwise been. If the effect were a linear one, then I would expect this impact to be 0.7oC. However I would expect the relationship to be a non-linear, with a diminishing marginal impact for each successive increase in the greenhouse forcings. To get to the median IPCC predicted increase of 3.5oC for this century would require huge increasing impact. Maybe climatologists are too lost in their consensus to see the bigger picture provided by data analysis.

 

Quote 3

“Finally, most experts anticipated that over the next 20 years research will be able to achieve only modest reductions in their degree of uncertainty.”

 

Do you want some accurate, scientific, analysis of the climatic instability that will be brought about by rising temperatures, in turn caused by rising CO2? The best experts cannot see this being achieved until long after they retired.

 

The Real Conclusion

The top climate scientists tacitly acknowledge that there is no robust, scientific basis for the climatic instability forecast.

Hat tip: Richard North at EU Referendum

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 30/06/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Climate Change, Science & Non-science
Tagged , ,

Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 30/06/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/06/30/climate-tipping-points-%e2%80%93-the-real-conclusion-beneath-scientists-opinion/

Icelandic Volcanoes – Climate Change in Proportion

Climate Change is not completely wrong. It simply exaggerates the impact rising temperatures, the greenhouse effect on those changes and then ability of human beings to change that.

An (extreme) example is the attempt to link the frequency of volcanic eruptions in Iceland due to the thinning ice caps.

This proposition is “As the ice melts the rock can melt because the pressure decreases,”

Wattsupwiththat try to put this in perspective through a two-step process.

1. Estimate the change in rock temperature melt point as the pressure decreases. This is estimated at 0.0013°C per metre of ice, so the disappearance of the entire 500m thick ice sheet would decrease the melting point of the magma beneath by around 0.5°C, or less than 0.05%. The actual loss is estimated at 10%.

2. In terms  of pressure, 500m of ice is equivalent to 20m or less of rock. However, volcanic eruptions are caused by magma rising to the surface from many kilometres down. 20m of rock is hardly significant in this.

However, the current problem of steam/ash clouds is caused by the magma being rapidly cooled by the ice. So without glaciers we would not have the current problem of planes being grounded.

What is important is the lack of perspective that the researchers have shown.  

Using a research

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 17/04/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Beancounting Methodology, Climate Change
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 17/04/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/04/17/icelandic-volcanoes-climate-change-in-proportion/

Futerra – The Propagandists of Climate Change Totalitarianism?

 

Ian Dale takes issue with the way taxpayer money is being used to indoctrinate people about climate change. 
The PR agency Futerra have produced a leaflet which allegedly make “It’s the use of totalitarian indoctrination techniques designed to manipulate public opinion.”

Having a quick look at their website, I am not sure from what perspective Futerra are coming from.

From the comments Dale makes they seem like a bunch of frustrated Marxists. The deniers are suffering from false consiousness. Hence the comments about there being no ‘rational man’ and using social learning. Then again, they could be frustrated telly-evangelists from the comments about “Link climate change mitigation to positive desires aspirations” and again use of social learning (or collective worship).

This can be more clearly seen from other documents on their website.

“Be part of the revolution.” (http://www.futerra.co.uk/revolution/)

But this document provides the best clues. – http://www.futerra.co.uk/downloads/Sellthesizzle.pdf

“For years we’ve tried to ‘sell’ climate change, but a lot of people aren’t buying. Despite a strange recent resurgence in denial, the science is unequivocal.” “For all of us desperately promoting action, finding ingenious ways to communicate climate change or just banging our heads against the hard brick wall of climate denial – we need to find the sizzle.”

Translated as – the truth is self-evident to those of us who are in the know, we just have to explain it better.

The religious analogy is then clearly stated.

“Climate change sounds like hell, so where is heaven?

Climate change itself isn’t the sizzle, it’s the sausage. That’s where our second metaphor comes in. The most common message on climate change is that we’re all going to hell.” And “Hell doesn’t sell”

 

“Heaven sizzles

But there is one message that almost every audience responds to. A narrative that changes hearts, minds and even behaviours. An approach needed now more than ever before. And it’s the opposite of climate hell. We must build a visual and compelling vision of low carbon heaven.”

Or maybe neither is right. Maybe it is just a sideline of the Prime Minister’s. After all Futerra state “For nearly nine years we’ve helped you save the world.” We know that such a statement can only refer to Gordon Brown. (http://www.futerra.co.uk/home) The New Labour theme also chimes with the ‘message is right, just the communication that is wrong.’

Maybe it is time for some of their clients to take another look at their Eco PR agency. Beneath its thin green veil lie fanatical, intolerant and pseudo-religious views.

If we are truely concerned with the planet, maybe we should weigh up the evidence, take on board genuine complaints and listen. In the realm of science it means a bit of humility and recognizing when we get things wrong.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 21/02/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Eco-Fanatics, Gordon Brown, Spin (Propaganda)
Tagged , , , ,

Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 21/02/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/02/21/futerra-the-propagandists-of-climate-change-totalitarianism/

Steve Macintyre’s Peek Behind the curtain

Back in March Climateaudit published this blog. This deals with the suppression of a paper that says there is no evidence for a rise in the level of water vapour in the upper atmosphere in the recent past. Why is this important? The forecasts of dramatic rise in global temperatures are based upon the small rise in global temperatures so far experienced (and claimed to be caused by increases in greenhouse gases) resulting in higher levels of water vapour in the middle and upper troposphere. Without this positive feedback loop, the current 2oC to 4oC rise in temperatures predicted for this century are dramatically reduced.

The bottom line is that, if (repeat if) one could believe the NCEP data ‘as is’, water vapour feedback over the last 35 years has been negative. And if the pattern were to continue into the future, one would expect water vapour feedback in the climate system to halve rather than double the temperature rise due to increasing CO2.

In other words, if the data is right, expect global temperatures to rise by 0.5 oC.

The response should be one of ‘let us pursue this further’, not ‘let us squash this, as it rocks the boat’.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 25/05/2009  •  Permalink
Posted in Climate Change, Environment
Tagged , ,

Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 25/05/2009

https://manicbeancounter.com/2009/05/25/steve-macintyre%e2%80%99s-peek-behind-the-curtain/

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