Attack on 4x4s by Eco-Fanatics – The Causes

This weeks South Manchester Reporter (28/05/09) carrys the following report on Page 11 (not online)

Eco-vandals target another 80 4x4s

“Environmental activists attoacked scores of 4×4 vehicles -leaving messages on the windscreems accusing owners of adding to global warming”

“The attacks, across Chorlton, Fallowfield and Whalley Range, follow two similar incidents over the last month. Tyres on 20 vehicles were slashed or let down overnight in the Ladybarn and Withington areas last week. And the tyreson 11 cars were also slashed or let down on Ladybarn, Withington and Disbury last month.

“A statement from the activists said tyres were deflated rather than slashed. It added: “Given the threat of climate change and the government’s inaction, direct action such as this is, unfortunately necessary. Large SUVs emit substantially more greenhouse gases.””

The Manchester Evening News (owner of the South Manchester Reporter) ran the story, as did the Daily Mail, on 25th May, the Herald on 28th May  and the Independent on 23rd May

The Independent contained the following

Detective Inspector Damian Moran, from Greater Manchester Police, said: “Those responsible might believe they are making a point, but this behaviour is criminal.

“It is mindless vandalism with no regard for the distress and nuisance caused to decent members of our community and will not be tolerated.

DI Moran is slightly in error in this. It is a modern form of political protest, aimed at intimidation.  It is the outcome of the way that the whole global warming climate change agenda is going. To substantiate this, consider the sequence.

1. The emission of greenhouse gases by humans will theoretically raise global temperatures by maybe 0.5 to 1.0 degrees this century. This seems to correlate quite closely with the temperature data of the past century

2. Bodies like the UNIPCC then assume that there will be a positive feedback loop. The computer models project with that small rise in temperatures will increase the water vapour in upper atmosphere. As this is over 95% of greenhouse gas, a small increase will lead to large rises in temperature. So the forecast churned out by those models is around 2 to 4 degrees.

3. The climatologists then assume that the data collected is unbiased, and the recent warming is a unique feature. Therefore the results have a high level of confidence and explanatory power.

4. This is then dressed up with appropriate political spin and certainty, whilst denouncing those who reject it as having impure motives or being deranged or out of order.

5. The UK government (along with others) responds by setting draconian reduction targets.

6. Environmental groups, like the Green Party, look at the worst most extreme predictions then say it does not go far enough and want yet more draconian targets.

7. This gives the fanatical, morally self-righteous (e.g. Green Fist, Plane Stupid) who want to commit puerile acts of vandalism, dressed up as saving the planet.

8. The perpetrators of these acts then decide to take matters further, going beyond their remit. In this case, slashing car tyres instead of just letting them down.

Where will this end? Snatching babies bottles, as they contain dairy products? Vandalising the homes of those who have their heating too high? I will not suggest more obvious examples. This whipping up of hatred is a common feature of human history, whether the crusades, the post-reformation Calvinsim, Marxist revolutionaries or German anti-semitism. It has no place in pluralistic, liberal democracies, nor in advanced societies who want to benefit from science.

No warming in the Antarctic after all

Remember in late January an article in Nature was published concluding Antarctic warming over the past 50 years was more extensive than previously thought?

 

A chap called Ryan O. has got to the bottom of the numbers. The conclusion is that the statistical analysis is flawed, and the results do not stand up. Steve Mcintyre, on Climate Audit has published blogs here and here explaining and enlarging on aspects of the findings.

 

I wonder if Nature will publish these findings? I can say with near certainty that the press will not give the same prominence to this as the original findings. There will be no announcement on the BBC, nor will msnbc be announcing that “Flawed research undermines climate change consensus”. It is not just a media bias in the Global Warming Climate Change debate, but simply that counter-news is rarely reported. So every minor bit of medical research is shown as news, but rarely do we get updates that the results have been overturned, despite it happening 80% of the time. Yet in scientific areas that rely on statistical analysis this happens all the time. In studying economics I found in many areas, such as the Theory of Demand, The Phillips Curve and on the Monetarist / Keynesian debates on the 1960s to 1980s, papers were constantly being overturned.

 

For those who believe that predictive ability is the sign of good science James M. Taylor, senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute, should be commended. Quoted in OPedNews on January 24th 2009, three days after the article was published.

 

“I would be quite wary of assigning much value to this article. Raw temperature data and a number of studies over many years have determined that Antarctica is cooling. Now we have a single article, reliant on subjective data interpretation from well-known global warming alarmists, saying the opposite.

“For a long time now, Antarctic cooling has been a stone in the shoe of global warming alarmists. Now, conveniently, those who regularly blog on an alarmist Web site claim they have ‘statistically smoothed’ the data to show Antarctica is warming, even though surface temperature stations show a significant, long-term cooling trend.

“The article appears to argue that due to incredibly bad luck, many temperature stations scattered throughout the continent are located in random, isolated pockets of cooling that defy the overall warming trend. The odds of this being the case are quite remote, and the theory is notably short on reliable evidence. Adding to the dubious nature of the study’s conclusion is the authors’ self-interest in silencing an embarrassing mountain of raw temperature data that contradict the authors’ global warming theory.

 

Taylor points to the results contradicting established data. When that happens the review process should ask searching questions. Something seems to have gone amiss with the review process at Nature, despite them having taken 11 months to review the paper.