All posts by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter)

Please Pray for Gordon Brown

After the events of last week (see here, here and here), I feel quite sorry for there appears to be a divergence between the public and private face of Gordon Brown. Christians attempt to reconcile these differences in their own lives through prayer, studying the bible, public worship and seeking God’s unconditional forgiveness for when they have made mistakes, or erred in the smallest way. The Labour doctrine of spin, I would suggest, tries to fudge, evade and deliberately obscure anything that contradicts their message. When there are is strong underlying growth and charismatic leaders to promote populist policies, then this spin doctrine can carry people along. But when the main thrust of future policy is recognized to be inflicting hardship then it becomes quite difficult to constantly put out positive messages. Instead Labour have chosen to maintain the upper ground by a constant barrage of negative, exaggerated or misleading statements about their major rivals.

            Whilst many would recognise the impact the slogan of “Labour Investment verses Tory Cuts” has had on delaying recognition of the crisis in the public finances many months, what is not recognised is the impact on those in the party. If they put a slant on policy that is fundamentally at odds with what they believe – genuine public service – it will eventually be personally damaging. Maybe some, like Ed Balls and Peter Mandleson, who are more thick-skinned and less ideologically-motivated, the conflict between the good of the party and the greater good of the nation does not seriously trouble them. But Gordon Brown is committed to serving the country and has always believed he is the most able to lead it. Until the downturn this justified his ruthlessness in the pursuit of the top job. He is also astute enough to realise that not only did he get bank regulation wrong, but that his justification of structural deficits (see here) has left the government finances in their most wretched state for over 30 years. In so doing he knows that public services will have to be cut and then constrained for a generation.

            So when you hear of Gordon Brown’s throwing Nokias, or calling a straight-talking pensioner a bigot under his breath, please pray for him. Pray that he may know Christ’s love and forgiveness, and turn away from the lust for power and the love of spin. Most of all pray that he may have time for rest and reflection.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 03/05/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Christianity, General Election 2010, Gordon Brown, Spin (Propaganda)
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 03/05/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/05/03/please-pray-for-gordon-brown/

Cutting the Deficit – The PR aspect for the Tories.

There is growing recognition that the job of cutting the deficit will destroy the electoral prospects of those carrying out the task for a generation. Capitalists at work, have (very much tongue in cheek) suggested that a war might be needed to save the next government, much as the Falklands boosted the Tories and helped win the 1983 General Election. A war would certainly help, but such a dreadful circumstance should not be wished upon the nation. The Falklands War was a minor skirmish with a decisive victory that helped topple a dictatorship.

Another way is to encourage the general public to despise Labour – something that Cameron has avoided. There is plenty to go out, for instance:-

  1. The structural deficit (the bit that needs to be closed) is Brown’s fault. I estimate by 2015, around £750bn (over 50%) of the national debt will be as a consequence of the deficits built up in the boom years.
  2. Uncovering the partisan attitudes of the civil service and the political appointees. Encouraging whistleblowers and conducting audits may help.
  3. Launching enquiries and audits into major projects – for instance the widening of the M25, the NHS computer system, GPs pay rises, estimating the cost of Brown’s raid on pensions, why the banks got out of line etc.
  4. Tories emphasising unconditional forgiveness to those who have been taken in by the Labour Spin doctrines that got us in this mess.
  5. Emphasize that Labour have betrayed their core voters.
  6. Launching the initiatives to minimize the pain and maximize the gain from the necessary cuts.
  7. Changing the emphasis from promoting the interests of party/ideology to the government serving the people.

 

The Tories should do this not only to drive home the contribution that Labour has had in our current crisis, but also to give a positive vision for the future. One where governments will learn from past mistakes and learn the limits of what they can accomplish.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 02/05/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Conservative Party, General Election 2010, Gordon Brown, Labour in Opposition, Spin (Propaganda)
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 02/05/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/05/02/cutting-the-deficit-the-pr-aspect-for-the-tories/

Conservative bloody battle imagery is self-defeating

Centre-Right’s “Labour is down, and its throat is exposed. Finish it.” imagery is quite wrong – it will just drive people away from politics altogether, Much like Foot’s “Thatcher-Tebbitism speech”.

In the final days it is worth emphasising the negatives of the Labour Party and after the election bringing people into a positive image of the challenges ahead.

THE NEGATIVES.

1. The Raiding of Pensions.

2. Creating a Structural deficit in the Boom years – This is the bit of the deficit that now needs to be cut. Labour has betrayed its core voters.

3. The selling of Gold reserves shows poor judgement.

4. The fact that Labour has only tiny positive things to say, and a huge amount of venom.

5. The poisoning of the civil service, by partisan decision-making and political appointees.

THE POSITIVES

1. Cuts in services must be prioritised.

2. Old-fashioned value-for-money needs to be the core.

3. Government should Serve the people, not the interests of party.

4. Diversity in provision should be encouraged to make the best use of everyone’s talents. (As opposed to constant initiatives from a few inexperienced spin-doctors).

The Conservatives final dash for power should lay the foundation for removing the divisiveness and nastiness of the Brown Premiership, along with sorting the parlous state of the finances created under the Brown Chancellorship. This will only happen if the supporters of this era are encouraged and able to join in a better way.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 01/05/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Conservative Party, General Election 2010, Gordon Brown
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 01/05/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/05/01/conservative-bloody-battle-imagery-is-self-defeating/

Inflation – How NOT to eradicate the deficit.

Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman makes a sensible comparison of the debt crisis in Britain with Greece in the New York Times.

His major error to say that an advantage for Britain of retaining its own currency is in possessing the ability to reduce its real debt levels through inflation. However, to do so could be quite dangerous for the economic health of Britain for two reasons linked to a simple fact. Nominal interest rates tend to follow inflation so real interest rates tend not to be negative for long.

1. Borrowing for house purchase tends to be on variable interest mortgages. Fix rate mortgages are uncommon. Assume inflation rose to 10% (halving the real value of debt every 7 years). People would, in the short-term see monthly repayments more than double. My own monthly repayment mortgage (lower than average) would go up from 20% of income to 50%. The impact would cause house prices to fall again and consumer spending to plummet. So far the UK has avoided the house price crash of the 1990 to 1992, when tens of thousands of homes were repossessed. Mortgage debt is relatively higher now than then.

2. If inflation took off before the deficit was much reduced, the average rate of interest on the national debt would increase rapidly. This could mean in the short term the real cost of interest payments could increase, increasing the primary surplus. Further, the experience in Britain both in the late 1980s and mid 1990s is that after inflation, real interest rates remain high for a long period.

Possessing a constraint is a positive advantage of the euro. However it is only feasible if member nations had stuck to the original rule of maintaining the government deficit to less than 3% of GDP. However, it did not work without an additional rule – to keep the budget in a small surplus when the economy was at, or above, the long-term growth rate of the economy – the project was bound to fail in a deep recession.

Hopi Sen is aggrieved, with a slight justification, that Paul Krugman makes similar points to his post of a day before.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 01/05/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Economics, House Prices
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 01/05/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/05/01/inflation-how-not-to-eradicate-the-deficit/

The Two Faces of Labour

The gaffe and very humble apology later by Gordon Brown may have a significant impact on the General Election. But, as I wrote on John Redwood’s blog, there is a deeper public v private face to the Labour campaign.

In recent years our politics has become too like those of the countries that have defaulted in the past – like Brazil, Argentina and like Greece has become now. It has become about presenting a public face of concern and competency, whilst privately just wanting power and prestige. It is also about defending of that image by denigrating the opposition and distorting the reality of events to an extent that George Orwell would not have imagined.

 As a result, we had a structural deficit built up in the boom years and a refusal to recognize that growing debt was an issue. We have delay upon delay about tackling the issue, or even recognizing the problem. Now every minor proposal to tackle it is met with cries of destroying public services and ruined lives.

 The false face of the boom years and the delayed recognition means we have a much bigger problem. It will mean more painful cuts and more growth-damaging tax rises. However, like with personal debt problems, being open and honest there is a severe problem is the first step to solving it. Then you prioritize what is most important, both by area and within each area. That priority should be based on meeting needs – on serving the public – and not on maintaining jobs.

 As part of that recognition, we should divide the deficit between the structural part (using OECD guidelines) and the cyclical part.

 Like with a financial plan for families who have got into debt, we can see, year-by-year, how that deficit is reducing. It should not be enshrined in law, but at least will show how the pain of narrowing the deficit is bringing the nation back to financial health. Then we can also explain how targets are not being met – e.g. through growth faltering, or failing to meet targets.

We need, as a nation, to admit to the false face that all put on. We should now shun the spin, and recognise the poor state of the public finances so that we can repair the damage with the minimum of adverse consequences.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 28/04/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in General Election 2010, Gordon Brown, Government Spending, Labour in Opposition
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 28/04/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/04/28/the-two-faces-of-labour/

Labour Totally Loses It

Labour seem to have totally lost any sense of proportion when

  1. They talk about less than cuts of 0.5% of GDP sending the UK back into recession when most of that will due to not replacing leavers.
  2. When Gordon Brown is angry about other parties proposed Cuts in child Tax Credits and trust funds. Something that would hit the wealthier families. Or Ed Balls saying it was a “mistake to ghettoise the welfare state”.
  3. They attack the Conservatives innovative education policies, that could push up standards, because of potential minor budget cuts in LEAs that lost pupils.
  4. On cancer care, the target of seeing a specialist within two weeks is mostly met, but survival rates for most cancers are amongst the lowest in Europe.

 

Until last autumn they refused to discuss how to tackle the £70bn structural deficit they created in the boom years, instead parroting on about “Labour Investment v. Tory Cuts”. They then refused to have a full spending review until after the election.

Labour have further refused to answer questions on the Banks and the Deficit.

Labour are desperate. If they come third, they will be racked by in-fighting more gruesome than in the early 80s. The Lib-Dems will overtake them as the major left-of-centre party.

As a result, Labour lack any sense of proportion. Their very desperation makes them unqualified to govern, or even represent any of the constituencies.

 

(this is an updated version of a comment made on John Redwood’s blog today)

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 27/04/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in General Election 2010, Labour in Opposition, Spin (Propaganda)
Tagged ,

Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 27/04/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/04/27/labour-totally-loses-it/

Why Labour has not the Courage to cut Public Expenditure

18 months ago, I voted on the Congestion Charge. I went into the ballot box having been promised  

 ‘There’s no Plan B. If we vote NO in December the money goes back to Government, all £3 billion of it.’

  See wevoteyes facts 09 Nov 08

I was one of the 812,815 who voted against, a staggering 78.8% of the votes cast.

Depite this promise, six  months later Manchester gets the Metro extensions – the big ticket item. Costing £1.4bn. South Manchester Reporter had the story here.

 

We now have a huge deficit to tackle. If Gordon Brown cannot keep to a firm promise in the face of strong opposition, how resolute will he be on the unspecified commitments to cut the deficit?

 NB the pdf is from wevoteyes.co.uk. This website has now been taken down. For the full story see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_congestion_charge

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 27/04/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in General Election 2010, Gordon Brown, Government Spending, Manchester Congestion Charge, Uncategorized
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 27/04/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/04/27/why-labour-has-not-the-courage-to-cut-public-expenditure/

Education – A small innovation or extra costs?

There have been claims today that the Gove school plan is flawed as school budgets will suffer. (See BBC & ASI Blog). The comments are put out by those who cannot see the twin advantages of such a policy – Of raising standards and raising productivity. Like in Sweden, it will serve to provide better value for the taxpayer and provide local communities with more diversity and innovation.

 

As I wrote in response to Hopi Sen’s article.

The claim that LEA schools budgets will suffer if schools go independent is only valid for fixed costs.

For instance, suppose an existing school 2 class per year primary school, loses 50% of its pupils to a start-up next door. Leaving aside the one-off costs of redundancies etc, the major costs are variable – the teaching staff. However the fixed costs (heating, maintenance, LEA admin) will go unchanged, so cost per pupil will rise. A 10% drop in pupil numbers may cause a 3% to 5% rise in costs per pupil.

However, this could be offset by three things.

1. Efficiency savings / productivity increases. Given that we have had 13 years of a government who throws money at problems, there should be plenty of opportunities for this.

2. Start-up schools being given tighter budgets from the outset.

3. In the long run, all fixed costs are variable. In other words, unpopular schools will close, LEAs will shrink their staff etc.

 

Hopi – You are right when you say that the education budget will be cut, like much else. The structural deficit created in the boom years will not be eliminated by a strong recovery. The best way to minimise the impact on public services is to first understand the nature of the costs and then find ways of improving productivity. Like in many areas of the private sector, this is by allowing for different types of solutions to a particular issue, initiated by people on the ground.

 

This country needs change, not because the Labour Government has run out of ideas, but because their top-down ideas do not exploit the real changes brought by utilising the best and most innovative talents in improving their own circumstances. In education, the Gove plan makes a start in this direction.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 26/04/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Conservative Party, Education, General Election 2010

Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 26/04/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/04/26/education-a-small-innovation-or-extra-costs/

Alex Salmond’s anti-democratic spoiling tactics

Alex Salmond’s claim that he should take part in the British Political Leaders Debates is not just invalid, it is anti-democratic.

1. He represents a party that is only standing in less than 10% of the total constituencies.  (59 out of 650). If you are concerned about getting people interested in the political issues, then his utterances will be largely irrelevent.

2. This is a fraction of the candidates of UKIP (500+), the BNP (339) or the Green Party (300+).

2. If those three parties look at the European Elections in 2009, they can also claim to appeal to more people.  The fringe parties 31.3% of the vote verses 2.1% for the SNP. The English Democrats got 1.8%.

3. More importantly, many of the issues, such as Education and Health Services, are English issues. On the majority of the questions the SNP would have to be silent.

The only valid reason that the SNP taking part in the three main debates is to generate such a loathing for Scotland that the English public will want to throw them out. But British democracy is already weak and should not be weakened further.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 25/04/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in BNP, General Election 2010, Uncategorized

Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 25/04/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/04/25/alex-salmonds-anti-democratic-spoiling-tactics/

Risk, Volcanic Ash, Regulation and the Leaders debate 2

John Redwood today makes some brilliant observations on “Bash the banks and Praise the Regulators”. His comparison with the ash cloud and the banking regulation is particularly apt. But it is not just the cost of inappropriate regulation that there is a similarity. The leaders’ debate of tonight showed crystallised the issue for me. It is how do the authorities deal with an unprecedented situation? The risk-averse say let us do nothing until there is full information. On the financial system, nothing was done to control the excesses. On the ash cloud everything was stopped until the scope of the problem could be assessed by the experts.

There is a way of going into the unknown without full information. You set general rules and assess the magnitude of any problem.

–         On the ash cloud, you compare the risk with the size of the eruption, the size of the particles and the distance from the volcano. From this, you would have found no evidence of large jet aircraft getting into emergency situations 1,000 miles from an eruption, in an ash cloud that is hardly visible.

–         From the financial system, the situation was evident that house prices and consumer borrowing was going to unsustainable levels on an unprecedented scale from 2003 onwards. The 0% interest credit cards and the large discounts for changing mortgages were evidence of this in the UK. The sub-prime boom, with mortgages deals agreed whereby in 3 years the borrowers could not meet their repayments was evidence of this in the USA. It was the very magnitude of the problem that should have merited special attention. The action should have been to raise interest rates and increase cash requirements for banks.

On the surface the action was the opposite – One to stop what was already happening, the other that immediately stopped anything from happening. But the cause is the same – by requiring detailed rules and acting on how others will perceive our actions, the authorities took wrong course of action.

 The Leader’s debate crystallised it for me. There was one leader who stood out. His reaction to any problem is not to take any risks.

–         He will not risk safety by letting planes fly.

–         He will not start cuts now to risk the recovery.

–         He will not risk banks ever getting into trouble again.

–         He will not risk a foreigner being unidentified.

–         He will not risk existing jobs.

–         He will not risk offending our European neighbours by disagreeing with them.

–         He will not risk independent MPs, by banning them from second jobs and monitoring every penny they spend.

–         He will not risk independent thought, by stipulating what religions should believe.

–         He will not risk diversity in education by allowing independent schools to be formed in the state sector.

 In so doing, after another 5 years of his leadership we will have no recovery; we will have no decision-makers in government – just be taking orders from Brussels and the IMF; we will have no risk-takers in business as most will not want to overcome the ever-higher regulatory hurdles for achievements that are taxed away and vilified.

We will also have no future.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 22/04/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Beancounting Methodology, Credit Crunch, General Election 2010, Gordon Brown, Regulation, Spin (Propaganda)
Tagged , , , ,

Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 22/04/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/04/22/risk-volcanic-ash-regulation-and-the-leaders-debate-2/

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