Turning MPs into Administrators

According to the Sunday Times, there is a proposal to cut the salaries of MPs with outside interests. This flows from a view that time spent equals output. Modern Britain has moved in the opposite direction.

 Who do you think should be paid more?

 

  1. A GP who handles 50 patients a day, one who handles 40 patients a day. The second is much better at diagnosis of cancer, so survival rates of their patients are significantly better than the first.
  2. A fireman who puts in enormous effort in public awareness campaigns, (but does not act like taking risks), or the fireman who much prefers maintaining the equipment and pumping, but has received bravery awards for rescues.
  3. A credit controller who spends 60 hours a week chasing payments and sorting issues, or one who spends most of their 35 hours making personal calls. The former has some bad debts, and a high percentage of overdues. The latter is so efficient, that potential bad debts are spotted early, and if the account falls a day over due, the customer knows they will get a call.
  4. A hands-on salesmen who spends 80 hours a week at clients premises or travelling, generating £200k a year of net profit from 500 orders, or the salesmen who spends most of the time on the local golf course with his mates, two of whom regularly push orders his way adding the same £200k a year to net profit. In the former case, it is for a market-leading product. For the latter, there is competition from much stronger competitors.
  5. The managing director working long hours, effectively running the business on a day-to-day basis, but not thinking strategically. Or half-a-day a week part-time director who can identify important strategic opportunities and accurately forecast business risks. As a result of the second, the business grows during a recession, whilst competitors down-size or go bust.
  6. The drugs researcher who assiduously works throughout a long career, is popular & provides copious and well-written reports, but of little value. Or the wonder-kid who finds a block-buster drugs at ages 30 and 55, is a pain to work for, and their reports poorly written and often late.   

 

If you support “part-time” MPs being paid less, then I suggest that you support the first type of person. If you believe that MPs are there to make a difference, it is the latter. Further, I would suggest that such a move is the opposite of the direction that society is moving. In the wider world jobs have moved away from where volume and time spent are the measure of output. Increasingly it is the single actions, or a flash of insight, or just a small amount of time spent that creates most of the value. That is in the creative industries (research, advertising, design) or in education or health care or accountancy or even in manufacturing. The repetitive jobs have been eliminated by computers, or have moved to developing countries.

 

Other objections.

 

  1. If quantity of output is important, what of the MP who spends most of the time in the common’s bar? – or campaigning in other constituencies?
  2. What of the MPs who are also councillor’s or MEP’s. A councilor signs to work 20 hours per week minimum, so should an MP’s salary be worth less.
  3. The idea that MPs should be paid (partly) by the number of attendances was rejected. Is this not introducing this idea in another way.
  4. If time spent is important, should an efficient MP be paid less than an inefficient one (doing the same volume of work)?
  5. The biggest source of outside interests is government ministers. Should not the Prime Minister have a lower MP’s salary, or other member’s of the government.

 

It is one more thing to drive out the “elected representatives—citizen legislators replacing them with “professional politicians funded exclusively by the taxpayer

 

UPDATE – Douglas Carswell has a witty comment on the professionalisation of MPs

Getting Value on UK Govt Procurement

A way to save on the cost of government is to re-think our procurement strategies. This post is an enlargement a comment made on John Redwood’s posting “The Future of Trident”. I therefore start from the aspect of defence procurement.

 1)      Specialist specifications rather than adaptation of exisitng civilian (or foreign military) designs. (Communications technology is a case in point.)

2)      Inadequate specification at the outset, or changes to the specification part way through. (Numerous IT projects provide better examples).

3)      Changing the organisation to suit the equipment, rather than the equipment to suit the organisation. The best example (from personal experience) is of SAP software, where much of the benefits (in both improving the organization and cost savings) are through orientating the organisation to the software. Many of the failures of implementation are through

– Designing front-ends to make it more user-friendly.

– Writing bespoke reports when there are standard reports than can operate just as well (and are more reliable)

– Complex bespoke configuration.

– Have multiple configurations for a various entities or departments within the one organization.

4)      Poor stock control of spare parts leading to over-stocking, or getting rid of items that are required. I am sure that a major supplier of equipment (directly or indirectly) are traders in MOD surplus.

5)      Poor utilisation of existing equipment or assets. The MOD needs to keep huge stores in case of war – particularly of ordinance. But there are many areas where this can be improved. Again the NHS & Education may provide better (or at least more publicly accessible) examples.

 

The comments have some tie-ins with  the analogy between my shopping and improving expenditure posted on June 28th.

John Major on the need to tackle the UK Government Deficit.

Former Prime Minister, Sir John Major, today laid out, in simple language, the scale of the problem with the nation’s finances in BBC interview

I may change the order somewhat but this is a summary of what he said.

– The scale of the government deficit is unprecendented in Sir John’s lifetime.

– If it is not tackled there will be a severe crisis when our national credit rating collapses, leading to a sterling collapse, leading to soaring interest rates.

Why are we in such a mess? Sir John Major blames it on the government running a deficit in the good times, so the total debt increased when it should have been reducing.

There are 3 ways that will bring the current £180bn  deficit down.

1. Increase Taxes – but even a 5% increase in the basic rate of income tax and 20% VAT rate will do very little.

2. Cut expenditure.

3. Economic Growth

It is expenditure cuts that Sir John advocates

UPDATE 7th July – Adam Smith Institute blog has an alternative report of Sir John’s Comments.

Relying on accurate weather forecasts & Fumbling the Statistics

Tim Harford has an interesting blog on weather and the accuracy of forecasts. However, he does not look at two aspects.

1. The Consequence of Reliance

Harford comments

“A recent case in point: Bournemouth’s woes during the bank holiday at the end of May. The Met Office predicted storms, but the beach resort in fact enjoyed the sunniest day of the year. Bournemouth’s tourist office reckons the town missed out on at least 25,000 visitors and more than £1m of revenue as a result. Subtler losses and gains were registered by the would-be tourists, and the lucky ones who enjoyed both a sunny day and a quieter beach.”

Imagine if this had been the USA. Would the BBC have received class-action suits unless every 2 minute weather forecast had the sub-titled with long sentances about only being an opinion, and no responsibility held for the accuracy. Would they also become increasingly like prophesies from the Delphic Oracle?

2. The Statistical Interpretation.

Harford says

MIT economist Michael Greenstone has studied the impact of local temperature surges on deaths in both India and the US. He calculates that a year with one extra “heatwave” day – temperatures above 32°C instead of 12°C-15°C – would raise the annual death rate by eight per million in the US. In India, the temperature vulnerability is more than five times higher, notably in rural areas where agriculture suffers and wages drop.

The population of the USA is around 320 million. So an extra day of heatwave will cause 2.5% of the population to drop dead.

In India the 5 times higher vulnerability means that one-eighth of the population could be wiped out. Or is could mean that the death rate is only one third higher, allowing for the population is 4 nearly times that of the US.

Maybe the USA figure should be 8,000 and not 8,000,000. It is a shame someone cannot sense check these figures, as Harford has some interesting insights on his blog at the FT.

Socialist Economics

 

Tim Worstall has a blog today on the socialist calculation problem. Here he concentrates on the impossibility of collating the data necessary for inputting into computers. This is the only a part of the problem.

 

1. The Relevancy Problem

Mises said (in Human Action). “Knowledge is about the past, decision is about the future” Past information can only be a guide to future decisions. But if any actor acts differently then past information becomes imperfect, unless the changes follow regular patterns – move along known demand and supply curves in economics language. If there is a structural change, then that past information becomes outdated.

 Example – the credit crunch

A major feature concerning the credit crunch is that we have “entered uncharted territory”. That is, the previous macroeconomic models approximations of the economy are incorrect. The relationships that economists have spent years refining are now irrelevant. This is why the government is going to get things wrong in tackling the credit crunch. There is no past data to model, so they are just guessing. Even if they chose the best policies (unencumbered by ideology or political spin), choosing the optimal combination of quantity, time and place is impossible. However, solving for the macroeconomy is much simpler that the millions of products making up the microeconomy.

 

2. The Disequilibrium Problem

To solve the price problem mathematically is to find the solution to the simultaneous equations.

 P = -x1D+a1

P = x2S+a2

 Where P = Price, D = Demand quantity, S = Supply Quantity, x1 = Elasticity of demand, x2 = Elasticity of supply.

 In the real world, the market is rarely in equilibrium. There are so many things changing that a best you can only characterize the “solutions” as transitory and approximate. At worst, they may be a long out. These equations are for each of many millions of products available, and have to be all solved to produce a general equilibrium. If individual calculations are out, then the relative quantities will be out, having a knock-on effect to all other products. If the relative prices are out in one period, then the information for the next recalculation will be out.

 3. The Philosophy of Socialism

 But even with these problems sorted out, socialism is about equality and “fairness”. In other words, the price of labour is not market determined, nor the price of many items – e.g. healthcare, education, food etc. No Socialist Government is going to suppress the democratic will of the masses, to that a dictatorship of a computer. The “socialist solution” means suppressing the very values in which socialists believe.

 Example – Social housing

A socialist system might hold that people should be allocated housing on the basis of need, rather than ability to pay. So a single person would get much smaller accommodation than a large family. If the rent was controlled or housing was free at the point of consumption, people would want to trade housing. A retired couple, whose children had left home may want to trade for a smaller property in a more desirable area. Someone may be willing to pay more rent for a property near to friends, or to their work, or for a something more desirable (with a garden, near to the country, near to the train station etc.). A socialist may want to override these signals with other aims.

 

History teaching fails on the basic facts – and Daily Mail on statistics

The Daily Mail reports a survey of first year unversity students, which found that as a result of “trendy” teaching, most could not answer basic factual questions on British History. Just 16.5% could name who was was the general in charge of the army at Waterloo, and just 11.5% could name a 19th century Prime Minister. (What of the ignorance of the 5% or more who couldn’t recognise the answer to the first is also a possible answer to the second)

I was of the first to get away from the traditional way of starting with the Romans in First Year and finishing with the Post war events in the fifth form. But I could have answered these questions reasonably well by eleven.

A summary comment on this may reveal a lack of fluency with statistics at the Dail Mail offices

“In total the students answered just 26.7% of the questions correctly – just over one in five”

Hat tip to Conservative Home for directing me to this article.

Does the Prime Minister Tell Porkie Pies?

Douglas Carswell today accused the Prime Minister of telling lies. Here is the comment just posted.

 

 Interviewed by Nick Robinson today, the Prime Minister categorically said that “I have always told the truth”. On that point I think we should believe him.

Why? you might ask. What he says is clearly at odds with the facts.

The problem is that Gordon Brown (along with Peter Mandleson) have moulded New Labour around projecting a message and image. That message is not objective reality, but the image necessarty to win power and retain it. Couple this with Brown’s decade-long building of his own power base to become Prime Minister through scheming against every opponent. What results is someone like a communist who saw the imminent revolution in every newspaper paragraph, or an alcoholic in denial. They can only see what fits their reality. To see objective reality would cause his own self-destruction with a comment like

“We are in the worst economic mess since the second world war, and many of my actions as Chancellor have made this worse for Britain. As Prime Minister, despite trying to do my best, I have made mistakes that our children will be still paying for in their retirement. I have run out of ideas and energy on how to improve the situation, shall therefore be tendering my resignation with immediate effect.”

The Adjunct to Cutting Government Expenditure

I have already posted about the need to cut government expenditure is a more rounded way through focusing on 7 major areas. There is an important adjunct to this. The ability of the economy to climb out of the recession will be hampered by

 1)      High Taxation

2)      Onerous Regulation

 The burden of these twin factors was able to be borne in the boom. They may have reduced profitability, but other factors such as low interest rates and the ever-increasing public expenditure more than offset these factors. In addition, the house-price bubble was helped by the planning constraints on new-build. This shortage of supply increased the house price inflation. Coupled with easy money and low interest rates it also helped the consumer boom.

The opposite will apply in the recovery. This is through,

 1)      The high costs of the regulation will limit the ability of firms to lower prices, whilst still remaining profitable – break even is higher.

2)      More importantly, the time taken in meeting regulatory requirements, whether in house building or in putting in place new investments, means that the payback period is lengthened.

3)      Regulations to protect workers rights means that taking on new employees is similarly discouraged (Protecting the employed in the good times means protecting the unemployed from gaining employment after the bad times – see much of Western Europe during the 1990s).

 Sustained recovery with real jobs will therefore be impaired.

 

Reducing the deficit requires not only cuts in government expenditure. It means removing the impairments of the private sector to adapt and grow.

 

John Redwood seems to be grasping this point when he recognizes that the car scrappage scheme just offsets some of the high taxes on the car industry. Here is my comment posted earlier.

 

Mr Redwood,

 You make a very valid points here about trying to undo the harm of  high taxes on the car with a subsidy for new car purchases. However, I would take issue with you on the government having encouraged new housebuilding. You have said before that house buying was encouraged house buying in the past with low interest rates from 2000 to 2005 (only then to raise them too high). However, tough planning laws have meant that during the boom the numbers of new homes being built were at record lows, with much of the new build being in apartments and not the more desirable houses. This shortage of new build when demand was (artificially) strong, further exacerbated the house price inflation.

 However, you do point to a general principle for a quick, sustainable and affordable recovery – Undo the harm done by higher taxes and more regulation.

In the boom, these extra costs were largely absorbed. They have encouraged a steeper downturn and the increased costs will slow down and diminish the recovery.

 

The Net Cost of Tackling Global Warming

Dan Hannan blogged today on the CAP & Trade Scheme just adopted by the US House of Representatives. Assuming all assumptions are correct, the impact on global temperatures will be just 0.05 degrees by 2015. The costs on the US Economy will be trillions of dollars. If adopted worldwide, we might get 0.20 to 0.25 of a degree reduction. This scheme would therefore fail the Stern Review proposals of the benefits of action exceeding the costs. Without even questioning the AGW science, we can claim to be creating net harm to humanity by these measures.

Cutting UK Government Spending AND Improving Services

The Tories straight-jacketed are becoming in the debate on public spending. For instance today Conservative Home reports Phillip Hammond saying that “protecting frontline services is the key reviewing government expenditure”. If the Tories do not change this debate then they will fail the nation when in government. Here are some examples from my shopping that might help them succeed:-

 

1)      VALUE FOR MONEY – It is not how much that is spent, but the output that matters. Consider an example from my shopping. Recently I bought aubergines for 49p each against 89p each at another supermarket. The quality was not as good. However, the cheaper ones were at least 3 times the size of the more expensive ones, and I use them for bulk in making ratatouille. If the Labour Government were regularly paying 89p for their aubergines, they would say it was a cutback if a switch was made the 49p variety, and lowering of quality, even though quantity was increased 3-fold.

2)      PLURALITY of SUPPLY. The standard argument is to have a single source and type of supply. In the Government sector, the NHS is the only source of supply for Healthcare and the National Curriculum is means that the syllabuses and the structure of lessons are determined centrally. In my shopping, I like to buy the branded tea and instant coffee. But in neither do I stick to one brand, or stick to one supermarket, and I tend to stock up when it is cheap. I therefore save around 30% on average. The government sector is more complex, but by having diversity it is possible to get better value.

3)      WASTE REDUCTION. I do most of the shopping in my family, as I have the knowledge of prices, where things are in supermarkets and the best idea of my family’s diverse tastes, and the quantities required. Knowing tastes and quantities means that mistakes are minimized. We occasionally waste food in the household, but it is far less than 20% that is claim nationally. The Labour Government may have looked at cheaper sources of supply, but not consistently. In particular, as tastes change it

4)      PRODUCTIVITY. Mine and my partner’s time is valuable. We neither want to spent large parts of out time on shopping or cooking. Therefore, we would not normally make bread, pizzas, sauces or sausages as these would waste time. In cooking, we may cook large joints of meat and freeze some, as this saves both time and cost. There is a lot of trail and error in this and learning by experience. The Government, consistently, has looked at extending existing services and creating new functions, with an eye solely on the public perception and no particular view on how much output is achieved for a given input. In so doing productivity has probably fallen. See Burning our Money here.

5)      FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS. When shopping, I do not look for the absolute cheapest, nor do we do without luxuries. But too many luxuries, and too few bargains will lead to the overall household weekly shopping envelope constraining other expenditure, such as housing, cars and holidays. What is best is to have flexibility, so luxuries can be afforded, quality is generally good, diversity is high, new things tried yet cost is kept low. The Labour Government has for too long deceived itself about the financial constraints, first juggling over the course of the business cycle, then believing that boom and bust has vanished. Now there is the deepest recession since the constraints are massive, as government was already over-spending in the good times.

6)      MAINTAINING FOCUS ON PRIORITIES. When shopping for the best bargains, I do not lose sight of the fact of that I am aiming to satisfy the needs of my family. I do not slavishly pander to the whims of the children (though I do provide some treats and some junk food), nor do we do without all luxuries and treats. Rather, it is a balance of getting value, and concentrating on the basic goods that need to be purchased week in week out. For the Labour Government, too many items that should be classed luxuries, or “nice to have”, have become essentials and basic human rights. When it comes to stressing priorities they have little idea. Rather than make such a decision, they are waiting to be forced to make a decision, and then cuts are likely to be evenly made across the board.

7)      CONSIDER THE INTEREST OF THE RECIEVER AS NUMBER ONE. I look for the best offers in each supermarket. I take note and take advantage of pricing mistakes (such as making smaller packets cheaper per unit than larger ones); can see usually through phoney offers (usually); buy supermarket own-brands and trawl the discount cabinets for items at their sell-by date. In other words, I would like to think a supermarket’s profit margins on my shopping is somewhat below the average. My interest becomes before that of the supermarket. In Government, much of what is done is due to pandering to the government sector workers. Serving the general public is just another priority to be considered. Government should exist to serve the people. Everything should follow from that. This includes the interest of the public servants.

 

The analogy is only that. It does not encompass all the issues, and some areas (such as productivity and maintenance of priorities) are ranked as more important for government, whereas value for money in every item is the most important for my weekly shop. However, if it is the welfare of the nation that is our concern, it is a good way to move away from sterile and unproductive arguments.