Fraser Nelson misses the mark on Jobs for Foreigners

Fraser Nelson of the Spectator has been making the headlines today with his report that the jobs growth since is almost entirely accounted for by increases in foreign workers.

However, whilst the two figures might be the same in size, they are not actually the same thing.  Nor did today’s debate did not bring out the full difference. You must remember that the unemployment is now higher than in 1997 due to the recession. Netting this out means that at an equivalent point in the cycle, there are more jobs for British workers, as well as there being jobs for the recent immigrants. The implication that many might draw – that foreign workers are taking British jobs – is therefore harder to sustain. Also to get a more balanced assessment, you would have to see the proportion of foreign workers that have returned home (e.g. the Poles in the building trades) as a result of the recession. If it is in the hundreds of thousands, the British economy benefits from their work, but does not have to fund their unemployment.

To be also be fair on Gordon Brown, the large numbers on benefits is a separate issue. In the absence of immigration, the extra jobs would not have emerged. Instead you would have had some of the boom choked off by much higher rates for trades people and cleaners. Remember the £100,000-a-year plumbers before the Poles arrived?

ManicBeancounter Elsewhere

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–         Not without Labour imploding, as it’s involvement

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Perhaps the biggest risk we are facing is with the foreign purchase of our National Debt. The resulting high value of the pound would further erode the ability of our exporters to compete. Also, if the deficit is not brought under control we may not only have to pay higher interest rates, but issue debt in other currencies, to protect the lenders against any weakness in the pound. Then we will be like the emerging economies in the 1980s and 1990s.

Labour bashing business to save facing their awful reality

John Redwood wonders when the Labour Party will stop attacking business.

Not this side of the election and perhaps never is the simple answer.

 

This war with business started with blaming the banks for the current crisis. In the Labour view their wild excesses created the crisis, and so must be now tightly regulated to prevent this happening again. Once you go down this route, it is only a small step to saying that all business is only beneficial to the general welfare if tightly controlled.

To go back on this might be to admit that the banks were not entirely to blame for the crisis and the mounting debt. Allow this chink in the anti-bank defence, and the debate in the general election campaign will be as to how far the tripartite structure of central banks, regulatory authorities and government policy was to blame.

The further stage is then to lay bare how poor the state of the government finances were during the boom years. That is, through creating an ever-increasing structural deficit when at least budget balance should have been attained. By my calculations about half the forecast National debt of £1400 billion in 2014 will be down to economic mismanagement since 2001.

During the forthcoming election campaign I expect a constant barrage of attacks on bankers in particular and business in general. The hope from the spin doctors is that people will be distracted enough not to look at the true causes of the current crisis. If the Labour party – the self-proclaimed defender of public services – were to admit that they have wrecked the public finances for a generation, the party would implode. If they have any let-up on the business-bashing, then Gordon Brown will end up with a bigger defeat than Michael Foot in 1983.

Will Labour be kicked out by voters in the marginals?

Mike Smithson  of politicalbetting.com has posted the results of IPSOS-MORI analysis, which shows the swing to the Tories is greater in the LAB-CON marginals than in the country as a whole.

Unlike Smithson, I do not find this surprising. It is not due to an anti-Labour bias (though I confess, indeed proclaim this), but due to a simple analysis. There is considerable resentment of the current Labour government, that may surpass in the polls that of the Tories in the late nineties. That is, where they are able people will vote to get the government out. In a Tory or Lib Dem seat this will not matter. In a solid Labour seat, there is a de-motivating factor. But in a Labour marginal seat – and that can include seats with greater than 10% majorities, voting against the Labour candidate may help remove the government.

This is why I do not believe it when pundits say the Tories getting 40% of the vote against 30% for Labour will result in a hung parliament. We may not get a reverse of 2005, where Labour were on 35%, just 2% ahead of the Tories and still with a working majority. But the resentment factor is now mostly directed at Labour, and they will get punished accordingly, with the Tories being the principle beneficiaries.