All posts in category Climate Change

Kent Wind Farm – A dead loss to society

The Kent wind farm subsidy is mostly a waste of money, even measured by UNIPCC’s case for taking drastic action on CO2.

First, two statements and a bit of data.

“… the Kent windfarm. £780m invested to chase £50 ROCs. Offshore is double bubble, so £100/MWh generated.” (Sep 25, 2010 at 1:41 AM | Atomic Hairdryer at BishopHill )

“An effective carbon-price signal could realise significant mitigation potential in all sectors. Modelling studies show global carbon prices rising to 20-80 US$/tCO2-eq by 2030 are consistent with stabilisation at around 550 ppm CO2-eq by 2100. For the same stabilisation level, induced technological change may lower these price ranges to 5-65 US$/tCO2-eq in 2030.” (P.18 UNIPCC Summary for Policymakers)

An alternative for a wind farm is a small power station consisting of diesel engines. The most modern diesel engines can produce less than 500kg of CO2 per MWh. (See note)

So the subsidy should be no more than the trading credit CO2 of 12.5-50 £/tCO2.

Based on these figures, it is possible to state that of the £100/MWh subsidy, at a very minimum £75 is a dead loss to society. At most it could at much as £95. This is before you undertake a present value calculation on the trading credits value in 2030, or start questioning the underlying economic assumptions. Further this is whilst accepting UNIPCC consensus position in its entirety.

For an alternative take, see Christopher Booker in the Telegraph

Note on CO2 output for a diesel power plant

A large container ship engine has around 470kg to 560kg of CO2 output per MW (emission comparison table on page 13), with around 58% engine efficiencies. (See a MAN Diesel & Turbo paper “How to influence CO2” – 5MB pdf). Power-plants can higher up to 90% more efficiencies by heat recovery processes, potentially cutting the CO2 out per MW to 350kg. However, this would need to be verified by actual measurements.

Note on carbon credits v Subsidies

A carbon credit aims at adding to the cost of producing CO2 directly, with the objective of encouraging the most cost-effective means of saving CO2. That is if cost saving is less than the cost of the credit, you purchase the credit. If it is greater, then you make the investment. For power plants it might be very effective for bringing forward investments in newer power plants. It would not be so effective in choosing between new power plants with massive differences in cost per unit of output.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 26/09/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Beancounting Methodology, Climate Change, Costing
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 26/09/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/09/26/kent-wind-farm-a-dead-loss-to-society/

Royal Society lacks rigor in 20% cuts hypothesis

The New Scientist reports that the Royal Society believes that a “20 per cent cuts to British science means ‘game over’”. (Hattip BishopHill)

In the article, some of the scientists point to the need for innovation to promote the high-tech industries on which our recovery depends. I quite agree. However, I would profoundly disagree that government-funded research science is the best way to achieve this. Firstly, because government-funded research is notoriously bad at producing the job-creating outputs. In fact, the public sector tends to specialise in pure research, with only distant business opportunities. Second, is that government-funded research tends to be long-term. Most politicians would agree that currently we need the new jobs in the next few months, not a decade or more down the line.

As an aside, the idea that a 20% cut “would cause irreversible destruction” is a hypothesis that should be expounded in a more rigorous & scientific manner, with empirical evidence to back this up. I believe that it is analogous to the notion of tipping-points in climate science, so the Royal Society would do well to exchange notes with the folks at the Climate Research Unit at UEA. In trying to model their separate issues they will find that positing of such turning points relies on disregarding the real-world background “noise”. Such “noise” renders the turning points both unpredictable and highly unlikely.

My counter-argument is that, historically, Britain has been very good at the creative elements of pure science and invention. We are not so good at turning that into the reliable world-beating products that create the jobs. We are the country of Newton, Marconi, Whittle and Turing. We are not the country of Apple, Toyota, Nokia, Siemens or BMW.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 24/09/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Climate Change, Science - the Boundaries
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 24/09/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/09/24/royal-society-lacks-rigor-in-20-cuts-hypothesis/

Considering Uncertainty in Climate Science

Sir John Bedddington, provides the introduction to a summary of “The Science of Climate change” on  UK Business Department website. He states

            “The fact that uncertainty exists in climate science, as it does in other fields, does not negate the value of the evidence – and it is important to recognise that uncertainty may go in both (or a number of) directions.”

This may be true in a new field, but there is evidence that where the consensus is concerned, when assumptions have to be made, or choices made between different scientific conclusions, there has been a very strong bias towards the more alarmist conclusions. For instance,

  1. The emphasis on positive feedbacks;
  2. The over-statement of climate sensitivities;
  3. The promotion of the hockey stick as secondary verification of recent warming being largely due to anthropogenic factors.
  4. Further there has been a public relations failure to challenge unsound science, or wild predictions, or false confirmations.
  5. Neither have there been any consensus scientists standing up to emphasise that the model scenarios of future temperature changes are not forecasts

The consequence of recognising uncertainty means that an audit is required of the total picture. Each part of the science needs to be graded according to the certainties. Most certain is that a massive increase in greenhouse gases will, ceteris paribus, cause a rise in temperature. At the other extreme are predictions that within a generation the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in summer, or the Himalayan glaciers will have vanished, or the Maldives will disappear beneath the waves. The rhetoric needs to be replaced by establishing the case on a scientific basis. It is not sufficient to say that there is uncertainty and move on as is nothing had happened. The presence of uncertainty severely weakens the claim that the science is established and settled. We should now see the consequences for policy.

Hattip to BishopHill

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 17/09/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Climate Change, Science - the Boundaries
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 17/09/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/09/17/considering-uncertainty-in-climate-science/

A (weak) case against the Sceptics weakens the AGW Case

Deutsche Bank tries to answer the sceptics by attempting to demonstrate the the AGW is not completely refuted.

The sceptics arguments do indeed fail to amount to a complete refutation of the AGW case. Most of the “sceptic” arguments are against the idea that there has been no anthropogenic warming at all and that there is no evidence at all for the case. This would be hard to establish, and most “sceptic” scientists would never make this case. But almost equally hard to establish is the case that there will be extreme warming in the future, with likely catestrophic and irreversible consequences. At the very least there must be a clear demonstration that the likely economic impact (valuing the flaura and fauna as well), will be greater than the economic impact on human society of reducing CO2 emissions. Being able to demonstrate that the extreme opposite is implausible (in the vaguest terms) does not establish a position without unambiguous evidence and relying on unstated assumptions. There are some analogies that might highlight my perspective.
1. In medicine to have a reasonable expectation that the “treatment” will leave the patient better off than the cure. Simply showing that a few patients survived the treatment and recovered from the illness does not mean that the treatment worked. Nor does showing that some patients suffered adverse (non-fatal, but painful) side effects from a generally successful treatment to a condition that is 100% fatal without this treatment mean, that the treatment should not be used.

2. In considering a loan to finance a new business venture, the lending bank would want to see more in the plan tham that revenues will be generated. It would want to see a reasonable expectation that even with some set-backs, it could both deliver an income to the borrowers and sufficient surplus to repay the loan.
3. In a criminal case, if all the prosecution had to do was
   (a) present a case, that could not be challanged by the defence no matter how weak.
   (b) demonstrate that the defence had not proved their case beyond reasonable doubt, whilst being able to dismiss any evidence they presented on the flimsiest of evidence, including that defence counsel are paid to be biased.

4. A child caught smoking behind the bike-sheds is told that they have shortened their life by up to a decade. This will happen on average if they smoke heavily throughout their adult lives, but will not happen, on average, if it is ten cigarettes a week for five teenage years. They may have minor health issues, such as less ability to fight off the common cold.

What they have missing here is the huge middle ground – not of some truth on either side – but the middle ground where there is a an insufficient case established and / or, an insuffiently coherant plan, and demonstrated capability to carry out the plan, to gain a signficantly positive outcome. That is to give a reasonable expectation that the solution will leave the planet and the human race the better off for having acted.

Put another way, without a clear-cut case that an imminent, catestrophic disaster can be averted with a clear-cut plan, that has little adverse consequences, then there is ground to be made in actively trying to clarifying the extent of our collective scientific knowledge and the improving on the solutions.

Hatip BishopHill

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 09/09/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Beancounting Methodology, Climate Change
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 09/09/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/09/09/a-weak-case-against-the-sceptics-weakens-the-agw-case/

The Myths of Green Jobs – from the Classical Economists and a Beancounter

The Adam Smith blog posts (here) on the seven myths of green jobs (by the Policy Network). They are useful as a criticism, but more fundamentally the classical economists gave a rebuttal over a century ago.

From Adam Smith, you get increased prosperity from division of labour. Localism reduces the division of labour, thus reduces the wealth of nations

From David Ricardo this is augmented with the idea of comparative advantage. Trading nations gain advantage by specialisation in areas where they have a comparative advantage. Green economics ignores this. (Mises applies this concept to the labour markets. Low productivity, green, jobs will be created at  the expense of high productivity, conventional jobs.)

From Alfred Marshall there is concept of opportunity costs. In evaluating a measure you should not only look at the benefits of a choice, but the alternatives forgone. Green jobs will be creating, but at the expense of conventional, higher productivity jobs along with higher taxes.

From Karl Marx, you should look at the distribution of the national pie. Green jobs will only be created by forcibly reducing non-green industries. This enforced tendency towards monopoly will increase the profits accruing to the bourgeoisie, at the expense of the working classes. Given that the rate of return on Capital has fallen dramatically over the past two decades, is the Green Movement just a puppet of a degenerate Capitalist Class?

But as a (slightly manic) Beancounter, the economist’s arguments pale into insignificance beside a project management issue. In a major project, if you have no dynamic concept of how to control and continually reduce costs, or a clear idea of how to achieve objectives, along with ridiculing of any questioning of the attainability of the objectives –  then you have a recipe for massive cost overruns, and benefits failing to be achieved on a massive scale.  In the UK, the NHS computer system, the Scottish Parliament and the New Deal for jobs were all massive policy failures for these reasons. But they all pale into insignificance beside the global attempt to stop global warming by reducing CO2 emissions. Not just the scale, but also the lack of clarity as well.

(Roger Pielke Jnr’s recent talk is instructive on the perspective here)

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 31/08/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Beancounting Methodology, Climate Change, Costing, Economics
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 31/08/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/08/31/the-myths-of-green-jobs-from-the-classical-economists-and-a-beancounter/

Denialists become Superfluous

OR Who Needs Enemies when you have Friends like These

Climate Psychology is a blog specialising in mirror-posting articles from one side of the climate change argument, but with more lurid titles. The direct inference being that the truth of the science is so blatantly apparent that any criticism must be by the deluded, the deranged, or be in the pay of some sinister forces. One such mirror posting is of Tamino’s “Hockey Stick Delusion” at RealClimate under the Title “Tamino debunks the junk science of Montford and McIntyre for the umpteenth time — the hockey stick is still sticking around”

To anyone who looks at both sides of the argument – who properly compares and contracts each point made, will see that Tamino fails to address the points made. As I said in an earlier posting

 Look at

1. Who gives the fullest answers?

2. Which side evades the points, or attempts sleight of hand?

3. How are contrary or neutral points treated. Clue – look at how Judith Curry (who is trying to remain neutral) is treated. Further, look at how contrary opinions are treated.

4. Finally who are the real deniers in all of this?

This leaning on psychology is nothing new. It was used by the KGB to punish dissenters without trial (see also here and here). The recent publication of a statistical analysis of the Hockey Stick by McShane and Warner again shows which side of the debate the delusional mostly reside. The greatest irony is the blog has the following quote:-

“Because the truth is that promoting science isn’t just about providing resources — it’s about protecting free and open inquiry. It’s about ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted or obscured by politics or ideology.” Barack Obama

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 16/08/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Climate Change, Eco-Fanatics, Hockey Sticks, Science & Non-science
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 16/08/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/08/16/denialists-become-superfluous/

Andy Revkin doesn’t know which way to Panic

Andy Revkin today blogs about a 30km chunk of the Petrmann Glacier in Greenland breaking free. Yikes! We say! Run for the hills the see levels will rise!

Just hold on a minute! How much will this chunk of ice affect the global see levels? Well assume that this iceberg is only 20% submerged (still resting on some bedrock) and has a volume of 30km3.  With the oceans covering around 140 million square miles of ocean (363 million km2) this will raise ocean levels by about 16mm or 2/3 inch.

But in the Youtube video accompanying this piece, the problem is much more serious than that. It seems that the Greenland icecap is melting in the summer faster than the snow is replenishing it. If it all melted then see levels would rise by 20 feet or 7m (2min 50s), so Florida disappears beneath the sea. But hold on a minute, computer models show that all this cold water entering the Atlantic may cause a sudden Atlantic cooling in years to come. (1min 50s). I might be a little uneducated, but if the Atlantic cools around Greenland, then this will affect the air temperature. That means there will be cooler summer temperatures nearby. So the net melting process will be diminished, stop or even be reversed.

The message from this for the residents of Florida is not to run for the hills, but buy in a sweater or two, and be prepared for bigger beaches – the tide will go out, and never return.  However, for those a nervous disposition, I suggest take a shot of Whisky (Springbank 21 y.o. or Lagavulin 16 y.o. are my favourites), sit down and relax. The ice-melt will happen over decades, so see levels will not rise much in the next hundred years. Even with a 5 degree warming, most of Greenland will still be below freezing throughout the year. But this will not happen, as natural correction mechanisms will diminish the impact.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 07/08/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Climate Change
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 07/08/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/08/07/andy-revkin-doesn%e2%80%99t-know-which-way-to-panic/

The Division of Labour & Climate Science Part 1

Bishop Hill displays to an excellent short video at TED by Matt Ridley, encapsulating the concepts of the division of labour and comparative advantage. One thing that Matt Ridley leaves out is the creative destructiveness of competition through supplanting the existing order. Specialisation leads to new products and processes. By implication, the established processes and products are overturned. (Joseph Schumpeter needs to be added to the list of Adam Smith and David Ricardo)

It is not just in the sphere of production that these concepts apply. It is also with empirical science, be it economics, medical research or climatology. With complex data and many facets to the subject, there is scope for division of labour into

–         Data collectors,

–         Data analysts & measurers,

–         Statisticians to validate the analysis,

–         Theoreticians to innovate or create new ideas.

–         Mathematicians, to provide tools for analysis.

–         Methodologists, to provide structures of meaning and assess the boundaries of science.

–         This is alongside the general sub-divisions of the subject, which may change over time.

–         Alongside greater specialists there is also scope for generalist assessors who get a total perspective of the corpus of knowledge, weighing up the status of competing ideas.

–         Academic competition (to gain status) leads to improvements, but can also lead to diversity in conclusions. It also tends to blunt the conclusions where data is ambiguous or fuzzy.

This makes things a bit messy. In economics there has ceased to be any dominant schools of thought or policy prescriptions. But in climatology we are lucky to have the IPCC, which divides the world into a small group of generalist experts (who agree their main conclusions) and the masses, who accept the wisdom handed down. A bit like the guild system, that kept England in the Dark Ages.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 07/08/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Climate Change, Economics, Global Warming, Science - the Boundaries
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 07/08/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/08/07/the-division-of-labour-climate-science-part-1/

Keeping ahead of China and India

John Redwood is comments that the Chinese and Indian economies will soon be larger than those of The EU or USA. The high growth rates, coupled with their huge populations means that this will happen quite soon. I believe that if the most advanced nations are not to stagnate they must accelerate the advance into higher value-added activities*.

 The government’s role in this should be, at minimum, to refrain from hampering the creativity and the flexibility that this requires. Further it should provide a structure to enhance the comparative advantages that the UK enjoys. For example, in no particular order:-

 1. In learning. Britain is probably second in the world (behind the USA) for attracting foreign students. For the size of population, we lead the world in world-class universities. The government should encourage/enable the universities to build upon this. Our comparative advantage is that we are the home of the English language, the World’s second language.

2. In Finance. Sorting out a proper structure for banking regulation that will both prevent the build-up of systemic risk, whilst at the same time encouraging/enabling future innovation. The apparent contradiction between these two aims is best resolved by emphasising general all-encompassing principles, rather than the detailed rules of the American’s or the detailed form-filling that was key feature of the last decade.

3. In Climate Change. The current aims to reduce CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050 are totally unrealistic. The attempts to do so will only serve to make Britain’s poorer and fail to meet our growing energy requirements. Roger Pielke Jnr explains why here.

* It is usual to say that higher productivity per person is required. From that tautologous statement the National Income = National Output, the way to increase income per person is to increase output person. As working time tends to decrease, more that 100% of this must come from higher output per unit of time. That is, greater productivity. However, the way to increase the income of a business is to increase the margins. The output of a university is not in the raw number of published papers, but the rare papers that create a seismic shift in out knowledge. In finance, it is not the quantity of deals done, but the large deals that create the most profit. For these reasons, I prefer the term more value-added rather than productivity as the driver of increased income per capita.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 07/08/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Climate Change, Economics
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 07/08/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/08/07/keeping-ahead-of-china-and-india/

Why Electric Cars Cannot Pay

In the Sunday Times of  1st August, Jeremy Clarkson does a review of BMW Mini E – an electric test car. (In Gear Pages 15 & 16).

He concludes that  electric cars are something that cannot be achieved – simply because they are too expensive, too short a range, and we have not got the electrical capacity.

There is another reason. We would decimate out public finances. Clarkson estimates that topping the Mini E up with standard rate electricity would cost £4, compared with about £12 for a standard Mini Cooper, or around £10 for a 60mpg diesel for 104 miles.

Now consider the exchequer impact. The £4 of electricity carries 20p of tax (VAT at 5%). The tax on petrol or diesel is about 60%, so £7.20 for petrol and £6.00 for diesel. The net loss for a typical 10,000 mile per year motorist is in the order of £650 – plus the road tax loss of around £100 or more.

If just a million car users switch to electric – 3% of the total – then the loss is around £750m per annum.

 Will motorists actually go for these savings? Not if they look at the total costs of ownership. The life of the batteries will be less than the 100,000+ miles that you expect from a modern engine. Current lithium ion might give you about 300 charges, or 30,000 miles in the Mini E. With the cost maybe £6,000 per pack (for simplicity), that would add 20p per mile to costs – equivalent to annual costs of £2,000 per year. The servicing may cost a bit less (no engine, but still all the other mechanical bits like brakes, tyres, etc.), but overall the cost of ownership.

Therefore, it will only be a small minority who will buy these cars – probably the richer end of the Prius set. Alternatively, the government will step in to subsidise the battery pack. So the middle class conspicuous consumers will be subsidised by the, poorer, users of internal combustion engines.

Finally, will this save the planet within Lord Stern’s criteria cost of £80 per tonne of carbon? Let us assume somebody swaps their standard small car with 130g/km of carbon with the zero-emission car. At 10,000 miles per year, that is a saving of 2 tonnes of carbon IF the electricity comes from zero-emission sources. The net cost to society is going to be at least 10 times that, so it fails the economic test as well.

by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 03/08/2010  •  Permalink
Posted in Climate Change, Economics
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Posted by Kevin VS Marshall (Manicbeancounter) on 03/08/2010

https://manicbeancounter.com/2010/08/03/why-electric-cars-cannot-pay/

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