Lewandowsky’s Recursive Corruption of Science

Wattsupwiththat have a guest post by Brandon Shollenberger on “Stephan Lewandowsky and John Cook – making things up“. It details how the Recursive Fury paper elements that are fabricated. This is a comment just posted.

The “Recursive fury” paper fails to consider an alternative hypothesis. If psychology expert L came along and said that you should not be listened to about subject A, which you believe strongly about, because:-

(a) Nearly all the “experts” disagree with you.

(b) Some fellow believers allegedly have political beliefs that the person L does not like.

(c) A higher proportion of your fellow believers than L’s group allegedly hold other beliefs that most people view as being “nutty

Then you would be somewhat upset – a normal, human, reaction. If you later found out that the claims about the experts were not true, the questions were biased and the statistical conclusions were contradicted by basic statistical analysis, you would be justifiably furious.

Like with people who attribute every extreme weather event to global warming, Lewandowsky bases his case for ignoring sceptical opinions on a distorted opinion of corrupted evidence. When it gets a very predictable response, he interprets this with a distorted opinion of corrupted evidence. The only recursive bit is in the methods Lewandowsky employs in corrupting science.

The Calculus of Climate Change morality

A couple of days ago Jo Nova highlighted another example of an environmentalist, Jonathan Moylan, who thought that to save the planet they were morally justified in committing criminal acts. My posting is on one journalist’s opinion that Moylan should be applauded, not prosecuted.

Katherine Wilson in the Age opinion says

Moylan’s hoax asks us to consider a broader category of victims: the world’s citizens and environments who are facing the real consequence of big polluters such as coal companies.

When asked by the Newcastle Herald whether his actions were justified, Moylan said

 My intention was to get ANZ Bank to expose themselves as the backers of the Maules Creek project. Some media organisations have used the word ”justify” – this is not my word. My prime concern is the local community, which has been feeling very despondent – the forest, our health and our water.

That is Moylan does not think he is saving the planet from catastrophic climate change. Or at least he claiming not to do have done so after the event. Let us, however, assume that Katherine Wilson is correct in assuming Moylan’s actions were more to do global climate change than local environmental issues.

The moral case is that the harms caused in the necessary publicizing of an issue are insignificant compared to beside larger damage occurring. It we were able to go back in a time machine to April 20th 1889, and strangle the newly born son of Klara and Alois Hitler, would we be justified in doing so. One death could have saved the life of millions, as without a charismatic leader the extremist nationalist elements in Weimar Germany would never have come to the fore. But what if the communists had come to power in Germany instead? They were certainly the main opposition that the Nazis staged street battles with in the 1920s. Suppose that they joined with the Soviets to invade Poland and then the rest of Europe? With the many millions of people that died in the Gulags, along with the tens of millions that had died in the collectivisation of agriculture, could the death of an infant conceivably have caused even greater misery?

I use this example, not to ponder nor the morality of killing infants (or later killing the Adolf Hitler once he became the charismatic leader of the Nazi party). It is to consider whether, for climate change, such a calculus of causing a small harm will lead to the prevention of a larger harm. With respect to climate change, this depends on three factors. First, the likely harm from future unimpeded climate change will have catastrophic consequences. Second, the likely harm of the action to highlight awareness of the issue is trivial compared to the impending climate catastrophe. Third, that will be significant success in getting the issue recognised.

If climate change is vastly exaggerated then there is a risk that Moylan is campaigning for policies that are not justified. The treatment is more harmful than the ailment. If the harm caused by the action is vastly greater than anticipated, or the full extent is not recognised post the event (“you’ve got to crack a few eggs to make an omelette” mentality), then there is an element of recklessness. If there are already policies in place to optimally tackle the issue, and the media is already on the side of the consensus opinion, then aggressive action to further highlight the cause is that is already more than fully recognised is positively harmful to society. It could lead to policies not justified by the scientific evidence, however construed.

Consider the following from Katherine Wilson’s argument.

At the parliamentary level, Greens senator Christine Milne has applauded his actions as being ”part of a long and proud history of civil disobedience, potentially breaking the law, to highlight something wrong”.

Read more: 
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-hoax-we-had-to-have-20130110-2cix8.html#ixzz2HrZL2qbJ

Like the Nazis smashing up the shops of Jews, or beating up communists to highlight that their great nation is being over-run? Most people will now accept that the racist laws that existed in America’s Deep South in the 1950s, or the denial of universal suffrage for all adults in Britain prior to 1918 were immoral, and therefore at least some of the protests were justified. But most sane people will accept that the cause of the Nazis was evil, so any sort of illegal actions to promote their ideas is wrong. Wilson and Milne are assuming they stand on the moral high ground. Whilst not considering them as bad as the Nazis, I do believe them morally to be nearer to that position than of Martin Luther King, or Emmeline Pankhurst, as the points below will demonstrate.

For those citizens who have not given up on the conviction that taking action is ”the greatest moral, economic and environmental challenge of our generation”, there is little choice but to pull off hoaxes of this kind.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-hoax-we-had-to-have-20130110-2cix8.html#ixzz2HrZbJTY9

Again, others may disagree. Al Qaeda sees the greatest challenge as spreading Islam. For millions in Southern Europe finding a job, or being paid for their work, is far more important. Dr Indur Goklany. looking at the consensus projections of climate impacts thinks that in the next few decades there are far more important issues facing humanity.

Moylan’s hoax asks us to consider a broader category of victims: the world’s citizens and environments who are facing the real consequence of big polluters such as coal companies.

Read more: 
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-hoax-we-had-to-have-20130110-2cix8.html#ixzz2HreCE8d7

For more than two billion people in Asia, any environmental problems of rapid development may seem trivial to the huge benefits of being able to eat better, or having access to ever-increasing levels of healthcare and education.

For all the ”free market of ideas” posturing, the media and finance marketplace that Moylan sought to disrupt is not some equal playing field operating under rules of fair play. As countless journalism academics have documented, news agendas are set by public servants, PR agents, politicians and business leaders.

Read more: 
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-hoax-we-had-to-have-20130110-2cix8.html#ixzz2HrZwtWaP

It would be nice to know where Moylan’s views are under-represented. I know that I live on the other side of the planet here so I may have the wrong perspective. Did the Gillard Government enact a carbon tax last July to look tackle the problem of climate change? Was this policy one of the most stringent in the world? Does the “Age” publish the opinions environmentalists? Does the “Age” give fair coverage of both sides, or does it give voice to those deliberately misrepresent the sceptic position? Does the major TV network give impartial coverage, deliberately misrepresent one side? For example, when Jo Nova was interviewed for a “debate” on climate.

This is why Moylan orchestrated his hoax at a time when the Australian Securities Exchange is operating at a fraction of normal levels.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-hoax-we-had-to-have-20130110-2cix8.html#ixzz2Hra4WJ6L

Wilson is implying that Moylan planned the attacked to minimize the potential damage. But Jonathan Moylan has said

“.. it has had a much bigger impact than I expected.”

It looks like Katherine Wilson is trying to make Moylan out as somebody who understood the cost-benefit calculus of minimal damage for maximum effect, whereas Moylan is claiming the opposite.

True, his action may have affected the sort of ”ordinary” people who have blind faith that finance markets are based on trust and immutable laws. But are the people who gamble their spare funds in coal industry investments really the victims here?

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-hoax-we-had-to-have-20130110-2cix8.html#ixzz2Hre6ea2i

Wilson in effect condemns Moylan. Finance markets are based on trust. If the hoax has consequences for undermining peoples trust in making contracts, then the consequential costs are far greater than the short-term losses. She would have to show that she has in place an alternative system where trust is not important. I can think of some, but these are inferior to a market-based system, both morally (based on rule by fear) and economically. Wilson then makes an assumption about the investors. It might be people’s pensions that are at stake here. It might be from people who do not share environmentalist’s morality, or who simply think that the Labor Government is doing sufficient from the carbon tax.

To charge Moylan on the basis of fraud would also be disingenuous. As Fairfax journalist Eric Johnston reported on Tuesday, the ASX is subject to frequent hoaxes. How many rogue traders have used false takeover bids or issued statements to profit illegally from movements in the market? How many finance journalists and PR agents were complicit in deceiving finance markets in the lead-up to the global financial crisis?

Read more: 
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-hoax-we-had-to-have-20130110-2cix8.html#ixzz2HrerI3p2

My reading of the law is that Moylan should be charged just the same as those who hoax for personal gain, or simply to cause damage for non-ideological reasons. The motives should be taken into account in deciding the severity of the charge, and if found guilty, the severity of the punishment. It could be argued that his hoax should be treated far more seriously than a fraud for personal gain, as it could viewed as an act of economic sabotage. In fact Wilson in effect condemns him For instance, burning down an empty building to instil fear should be viewed far more seriously than an arsonist who has a fixation with seeing buildings burn. In the first case, it undermines the rule of law, along with the other causes

In summary, none of the three conditions to say that there is a moral benefit in breaking the law are met. First. the climate change issue is likely to be grossly exaggerated. Second. the hoax may have had huge harm. Third, climate change policies have already been enacted and the media presence is considerable. For a journalist to claim otherwise is the sign of a blinkered extremist.

Kevin Marshall

My opinions are my own. If they are in error, then I will consider reasoned replies. If anyone would like a right of reply, I would be happy to publish it, so that people can compare the arguments. I reserve the right to publish a counter argument. If you wish to contact me, please do so through the comments. I will not publish any approach for debate, but reserve the right to publish any approach that uses threats to shut-off my counter-arguments, despite due warning.

Stephan Lewandowsky on Hurricane Sandy

Jo Nova posts on Stephan Lewandowsky’s analysis of Hurricane Sandy. Below is my comment, with the relevant links.

Lewandowsky has a lot to say about the overwhelming evidence for smoking causing lung cancer, but in substance has just this to say about the impending catastrophic global warming.

Trends such as the tripling of the number of weather-related natural disasters during the last 30 years or the inexorable rise in sea levels. Climate scientists predicted those trends long ago. And they are virtually certain that those trends would not have occurred without us pumping billions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.

There are 3 parts to this.

First, the economic analysis of natural disasters is Lewandowsky’s own. He ignores completely the opinions of Roger Pielke Jr, an expert in the field, with many peer reviewed studies on the subject. Pielke Jnr has shown there is nothing exceptional in the normalised cost of Hurricane Sandy. Furthermore, a 2009 report showed that New York is vulnerable to hurricanes, and the shape of the coastline makes it particularly vulnerable to storm surges.

Second, the sea level rise is a trivial issue. From the University of Colorado graph, it is clear that sea levels are rising at a steady rate of 31cm a century.

Third, he claims the predictions of unnamed “experts” have been fulfilled. A balanced analysis would point out that the CO2 levels have risen faster than predicted, but temperatures have not.

Last week I posted a proposal for analysing the costly impacts of global warming. Using the “equation”, I would suggest Lewandowsky overstates both the Magnitude and Likelihood that Sandy was caused by global warming. He misperceives the change in frequency (1/t). Furthermore, given than he has a track record in the highly biased use of statistics in his own field, and his deliberate lack of balance, the Weighting attached to anything he says should be negative. That is, like to newspapers of the Soviet Union, if Lewandowsky claims something, we should read between the lines see what he does not say. However, unlike the Soviet Union we are still able to look for alternative opinions.


Normalized US Hurricane damage impacts


2012_rel4: Global Mean Sea Level Time Series (seasonal signals removed)

Lewandowsky et al. 2012 MOTIVATED REJECTION OF SCIENCE – Part 4 Political Opinions

This is the fourth in a series on Lewandowsky, Oberauer & Gignac – NASA faked the moon landing:Therefore (Climate) Science is a Hoax: An Anatomy of the Motivated Rejection of Science (in press, Psychological Science).

This posting is further analysis of the data set sourced by Katabasis. (The data is now available from Bishop Hill) The previous post looked at the conspiracy theory question, whilst this looks at the link that the survey makes between free market ideas and rejection of climate science. From the abstract, this was the primary theme of the survey.

Abstract

Although nearly all domain experts agree that human CO2 emissions are altering the

world’s climate, segments of the public remain unconvinced by the scientific evidence.

Internet blogs have become a vocal platform for climate denial, and bloggers have taken a

prominent and influential role in questioning climate science. We report a survey (N

> 1100) of climate blog users to identify the variables underlying acceptance and rejection

of climate science. Paralleling previous work, we find that endorsement of a laissez-faire

conception of free-market economics predicts rejection of climate science (r≈:80 between

latent constructs). Endorsement of the free market also predicted the rejection of other

established scientific findings, such as the facts that HIV causes AIDS and that smoking

causes lung cancer. We additionally show that endorsement of a cluster of conspiracy

theories (e.g., that the CIA killed Martin-Luther King or that NASA faked the moon

landing) predicts rejection of climate science as well as the rejection of other scientific

findings, above and beyond endorsement of laissez-faire free markets. This provides

empirical confirmation of previous suggestions that conspiracist ideation contributes to

the rejection of science. Acceptance of science, by contrast, was strongly associated with

the perception of a consensus among scientists.

There were relatively few questions to identify the political views of the respondent.

The Free Market Questions

FMUnresBest An economic system based on free markets

unrestrained by government interference automatically

works best to meet human needs.

FMNotEnvQual I support the free market system but not at the expense

of the environmental quality.

FMLimitSocial The free market system may be efficient for resource

allocation but it is limited in its capacity to promote

social justice.

FMMoreImp The preservation of the free market system is more

important than localized environmental concerns.

FMThreatEnv Free and unregulated markets pose important threats

to sustainable development.

FMUnsustain The free market system is likely to promote

unsustainable consumption.

The Climate Science Questions

CO2TempUp I believe that burning fossil fuels increases atmospheric

temperature to some measurable degree.

CO2AtmosUp I believe that the burning of fossil fuels on the scale observed over the last 50 years has increased atmospheric temperature to an appreciable degree.
CO2WillNegChange I believe that the burning of fossil fuels on the scale observed over the last 50 years will cause serious negative changes to the planet’s climate unless there is a substantial switch to non CO2 emitting energy sources.
CO2HasNegChange I believe that the burning of fossil fuels on the scale observed over the last 50 years has caused serious negative changes to the planet’s climate.

The Results

The answers for the free market questions are from 1 (reject the free market) to 4 (complete agreement to free market).

The answers for the climate science questions are from 1 (totally Reject) to 4 (complete agreement).

As in my previous posting, for the Climate Science questions I graded the answers to the four questions into groups based on the average score.


The answer is clear from the poll results. The stronger the support for free markets, the more likely one is to reject the climate science.

Taking the average score and rounding to the nearest whole number, the picture is even clearer.


The more free-market the views expressed, the greater the rejection of the science. Does this substantiate Lewandowsky et. al’s assertions?

Err No.

There are some series issues with this result.

Firstly, the survey was only available on a certain type of blog. Depending on your point of view, they are either pro-science or alarmist. These are

http://www.skepticalscience.com
http://tamino.wordpress.com
http://bbickmore.wordpress.com
http://www.trunity.net/uuuno/blogs/
http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/
http://profmandia.wordpress.com/
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/
http://hot-topic.co.nz/

If you sample some of their articles, you will find a dogmatic defence of climate change, and blocking, editing or denigration views that are contrary to their own. To regularly trawl through articles that you disagree with takes a certain kind of person that may not be representative of the wider sceptic community. Given that the sceptic blogs attract a wider audience than the “pro-science” ones, the fact that only 15% of responses were from sceptics says that only a minority regularly visit the blogs antagonistic to their views. In other words, the survey is not representative of the true population of those interested in the climate change / global warming issues.

Then there are the questions themselves.

At first glance the questions do not allow for the middle ground. Many sceptics who are not libertarian in outlook have then a number of options.

  1. Some might quit the survey in disgust, thus creating a sample less representative of the true population. There was no record kept of the numbers of part completed surveys, nor the point at which they were completed. The lack of neutrality and narrowness of the range of questions suggests that might be material.
  2. The second is to answer questions in opposition to the climate consensus. That is the join in coalition to free-marketers to oppose the environmentalist ideology. This is quite logical. Environmentalist ideology can be viewed as increasing authoritarianism, constraining economic growth (and thus the prospect of ever-rising standards of living) along with regressive cost increases in electricity and fuel for cars. In other words, those who want the status quo to be maintained join in coalition with those who want the direction of change to be the opposite of where environmentalists are pulling. There is no risk here for the moderates. Libertarianism is nowhere a major political force.

Let us look at the average response for each question to see if this is suggested.


The most pragmatic question is the least polarized. People may support a position ideologically, but will compromise if there is a demonstrable need or benefit. Conversely the last two questions are the most ideological. A lot of people are motivated to oppose a movement that is contrary to their own beliefs. In other words, the nature of the questions further drives people into opposing camps.

How should Lewandowsky have approached these problems? If he was an objective scientist, Lewandowsky would have sought advice from professional pollsters on the content of the questions. They would have advised more neutral, and a broader range of questions to enable people to express a range of views. They would have also advised validity checks to make sure the survey results were representative of the population at large. But Stefan Lewandowsky is not an objective scientist. His agenda is to prevent any opposition to the ideology he and others promote.

Are there any conclusions to be drawn?

The biases in the free market questions apply to those who reject climate science. However, as a survey of those who accept the climate science, it is more valid.

Firstly the sample size is significant. Merging the six groups into 3 gives:-


The sample size of 854 is quite large, and more than six times the size of those who reject climate science.

Secondly, the sample is likely to represent the true population of “Acceptors”, as it was placed on the blogs that they frequent.

Thirdly, as the survey was devised by people sympathetic to their point of view, the abandonment rate should not have been any higher than for more neutral polls.

The major conclusion is that those who “accept the science” have no truck with conspiracy theories. On political opinions, they strongly support an ideology which promotes the environment at the expense of economic growth and economic freedoms. That is the, planet should be given a higher priority relative to the people that live on it.

Thus the true result of the survey data is not that those who oppose climate science are nutters. Rather, it is that those who support climate science have views that are at odds to, and contrary to the best interests of, the vast majority. We have not got here the justification to silence the opposition, but giving them due weighting.


Lewandowsky et al. 2012 MOTIVATED REJECTION OF SCIENCE – Part 3 Data Analysis of the Conspiracy Theory element

A month ago made two postings on the paper Lewandowsky, Oberauer & Gignac – NASA faked the moon landing:Therefore (Climate) Science is a Hoax: An Anatomy of the Motivated Rejection of Science (in press, Psychological Science). In the first I showed that an opening statement about the beliefs of climate scientists was not supported by the references. The second raised some questions, which owing to a lack of data I was unable to answer.

When Katabasis offered in the comments at Jo Nova’s blog to provide the raw data for the paper I took him up on the offer.

The paper’s major findings were on the link between climate denial and belief in free markets. However, I first want to deal with the aspect of the link with beliefs in conspiracy theories due to

  1. the title
  2. The articles that have appeared in the Guardian and Telegraph newspapers.
  3. The following from the conclusion
  4. Also consider this from the conclusion

    “However, to our knowledge, our results are the first to provide empirical evidence for the correlation between a general construct of conspiracist ideation and the general tendency to reject well-founded science.”

The lead author, Prof. Stefan Lewandowsky has a history of dogmatically defending climate science, often by attacking the opponents. However, that is no reason to reject the results of a published scientific paper if those results are substantiated by the evidence.

The survey was posted on a number of climate blogs of all the same persuasion. Depending on your point of view, they are either pro-science or alarmist. These are

http://www.skepticalscience.com
http://tamino.wordpress.com
http://bbickmore.wordpress.com
http://www.trunity.net/uuuno/blogs/
http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/
http://profmandia.wordpress.com/
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/
http://hot-topic.co.nz/

If you sample some of their articles, you will find a dogmatic defence of climate change, and blocking, editing or denigration views that are contrary to their own. The claim in the paper that they contacted five sceptical blogs to improve the spread of views is highly suspect.* Jo Nova contacted 24 such blogs (including all the most prominent ones), with not a single one remembering such an approach. Prof. Lewandowsky is currently refusing to divulge the names of the blogs contacted. As there was no proper control of the answers, there could be rogue results generated.

Identification of those who “Reject the Science”

There were four questions on beliefs about “Climate Science”

CO2TempUp I believe that burning fossil fuels increases atmospherictemperature to some measurable degree.
CO2AtmosUp I believe that the burning of fossil fuels on the scale observed over the last 50 years has increased atmospheric temperature to an appreciable degree.
CO2WillNegChange I believe that the burning of fossil fuels on the scale observed over the last 50 years will cause serious negative changes to the planet’s climate unless there is a substantial switch to non CO2 emitting energy sources.
CO2HasNegChange I believe that the burning of fossil fuels on the scale observed over the last 50 years has caused serious negative changes to the planet’s climate.

The answers were from 1 (totally Reject) to 4 (complete agreement).

I found the average score for each respondent, graded and plotted the count.


Or summarising into 3 categories


As to be expected from the nature of the blogs where it was published, more than 4 in 10 gave the highest score and 85% are more positive than negative in their beliefs. The poll only includes 125 or 175 responses of those who “reject the science”.

Linking to Conspiracy Theories

The survey is about those who reject the science being more likely to believe in weird conspiracy theories than acceptors of the science. As Jo Nova puts it, the climate sceptics are meant to be nutters.

There were 14 conspiracy theories presented. Two (on New World Order and Climate Change) I will leave out for now as they are not entirely independent of the subject. Of the 12 remaining I took the average score. If the general hypothesis is correct, the more strongly the rejection of the science, the greater the score on conspiracy theories.


There is no significant relationship here at all. The typical respondent gives little or no credence to conspiracy theories.

To understand this better, I rounded the average score for each respondent to the nearest whole number. The pivot table is now.


There is no relationship here. The outlier is the two respondents with an average score of 4. One put a 4 for all, and the other put 4 on 11/12 and 3 on the other. These are clearly rogue responses and should have been removed as outliers from such a small sample. If removed, the average conspiracy theory score for those who dogmatically reject climate science conclusions drops to 1.49, the lowest of any group.

So what of the conspiracy theory that most the moon landings were faked? The one in the title “NASA faked the moon landing:Therefore (Climate) Science is a Hoax: An Anatomy of the Motivated Rejection of Science


45 out of 48 of those who dogmatically reject climate science, also dogmatically emphatically reject the conspiracy theory. The two who score 4 are rogue results.

In fact, the response is pretty emphatic in every group. Consider the abstract.

We additionally show that endorsement of a cluster of conspiracy theories (e.g., that the CIA killed Martin-Luther King or that NASA faked the moon landing) predicts rejection of climate science as well as the rejection of other scientific findings, above and beyond endorsement of laissez-faire free markets.

Maybe the correlation was with the Climate Science Conspiracy Theory?


If you take out the two rogue responses, then if any comment were to be extracted it would surely be the other way round. However, it is not significant, and internet responses get some rogue results on all sides.

Let me be quite clear. The title of the paper makes a false claim from authors with an agenda of silencing opponents. It is entirely without any proper evidence.

The other eleven results are below


Finally, the two conspiracy theories not included.


*Update 11th Sept see reply to Prof Lewandowsky at comment 120

The Bias of Climatology – Pulling Recent Strands Together

David Evans has provided a succinct explanation of why climate scientists’ theories, ignore some fundamental data. The views that feedbacks amplify the effects of CO2 (see Evans’s diagram below) is due to a highly selective reading of the data in a number of different ways.


Now we need to pull the recent strands together.

On actual temperature history we are getting evermore examples of data manipulation, whether on US temperatures (A Watts), Australian Temperatures (See Jo Nova), or the GISSTEMP global surface temperatures (Steven Goddard).

On past temperature history, we have the famous hockey stick graphs, starting with Mann et al in 1998 and culminating in the recent Gergis et al Australasian temperature reconstruction. All need a combination of one, or a few, very poor data sets that are promoted to prominence by statistical techniques unique to climatologists, and ignoring better quality data sets.

Something else needs to be added to the mix to obtain the high role for feedbacks – climate modelling. If recent temperature trends are exaggerated AND past temperature fluctuations smoothed out, then running a model that tries to look at relative influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on temperature will massively over-estimate the anthropogenic over the natural influences.

But go the other way. Look at the more accurate satellite data for recent temperatures and the temperature rises do not track the CO2 rises nearly so well. Go back to the raw data from the thermometers (adjusting properly for UHI), along with homogenization techniques developed by professional statisticians and the C20th warming deflates.

Then take the widest range of proxy records over a long period (even leave in the lowest quality ones) and suddenly the picture looks very different.

Then look at the role of feedbacks from a number of different perspectives, like Sherwood Idso, (possibly further corroborated by Esper et al 2012) and the real picture becomes clearer. Global average temperatures have increased in the last 200 years. Not quite as much in recent years as the temperature records maintain, but are now significantly higher than in during the 17th century. Furthermore, there is circumstantial evidence that a part of this increase (even up to 0.4 Celsius if non-C02 GHGs are included) has been due to the human greenhouse gas emissions. But this is a curiosity for a few academics to ponder, whilst the thrust of the research effort is put into improving the accuracy and integrity of the data.

Defence of the Consensus

The response of mainstream climatology (and with it a vast array of hangers-on) is not to improve the standards and moderate their wilder comments. Instead it has been to shut down debate by attacking the opponents. Australia has the unfortunate achievement to be home to two of the vilest the proponents of this assault on dissent. Prof Stephan Lewandowsky’s latest instalment is publishing a survey which associates climate skeptics with the worst of the conspiracy theorists. John Cook, a climatologist, ignores expert etymologists to justify calling his site skepticalscience.com

Climatology does not rank as a true science, as it has long since abandoned the search for challenging questions and improvements in quality of answers. Rather than explain the anomalies and meet the challenge of alternative explanations, climatology protects itself by employing intellectual bully-boys.

Lewandowsky et al. 2012 MOTIVATED REJECTION OF SCIENCE – Part 2

This post was based on the belief that the survey I took in June was the one used in the paper. I realize now this is not the case. The one I took at “Watching the Deniers” is a development of the 2010 survey. There are less questions on conspiracy theories (but “NASA faked the moon landing”, along with Diana, JFK and MLK assassinations are are still in) along with exactly the same questions on Free markets v Environmentalism. But the new survey has more on political beliefs (a good thing in my view) along with new sections on religious beliefs and GM foods. The summary I made back in June is here.

The paper Lewandowsky, Oberauer & Gignac – NASA faked the moon landing|Therefore (Climate) Science is a Hoax: An Anatomy of the Motivated Rejection of Science (in press, Psychological Science) is one of the biased and pernicious surveys I have come across. The previous posting was on the opening remarks on the validity of climate science. There are a few points where the survey deviates from a professional and balanced opinion survey.

Problems with the survey

  1. The access to the survey. It was an internet based survey, with links posted on 8 “pro-science” blogs. Five skeptic blogs were approached. As such, one would expect that “pro-science” responses would far outweigh “denialist” responses. I cannot find the split.
  2. There should have been a record kept of abandoned survey results. The survey gets more dogmatic as it progresses, and becomes far longer than originally stated (74 questions, as against 40 in 10 minutes quoted at the outset). Moderate skeptics would have quickly abandoned the survey when they realised what was being inferred. Others, as the questions became more time consuming and “weird”. See if this is a valid conclusion by first reading the questions, then my analysis.
  3. Not reported is the relationship between “climate denial” and genetically modified foods. Is the correlation the reverse? Nor is there any reporting of the section on climate change against conservative Christian religious views, or climate change against views on corporations. The survey only reported the most dogmatic results. Could it be that there is something relevant, but adverse to the desired conclusions here, or no relationship?
  4. There were also final questions on age and gender. Again, this should be reported.
  5. The main inference of the survey is that those who oppose climate change science are nut-jobs, whilst those who agree with it are pro-science. This saves having to explain the lack of any credible scientific evidence for the projected global catastrophe that we all need to be saved from.

Lewandowsky et al. 2012 MOTIVATED REJECTION OF SCIENCE – Part 1

The paper Lewandowsky, Oberauer & Gignac – NASA faked the moon landing|Therefore (Climate) Science is a Hoax: An Anatomy of the Motivated Rejection of Science (in press, Psychological Science) is one of the biased and pernicious surveys I have come across. This posting is about the opening remarks.

The paper starts by accepting the validity of science is from beliefs of scientists.


More than 90% of climate scientists agree that the global climate is changing largely due to human CO2 emissions (Anderegg, Prall, Harold, & Schneider, 2010; Doran & Zimmerman, 2009)

The first paper simply says that of the climate scientists who are convinced of climate change arguments as far more numerous and publish far more than scientists that are unconvinced. The most positive spin you can put on this is that those who believe in and are passionate about what they are doing tend to succeed more than those who don’t. You would probably find similar proportions of within New Testament theology or Marxian economics. It says nothing about the truth and the validity of the main claim – unless we act quickly to reduce global carbon emissions, the planet is heading for catastrophic global warming.

The second paper asked two questions:-

1. When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?
2. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?

It is only the second question that mentions the human element. In maths “largely” (i.e. > 50%) is a subset of “significant” (a measurable part). Neither is CO2 the only human factor causing climate change (Methane plus other gases increase the greenhouse effect, aerosols offset the warming). Further, the Doran and Zimmerman paper is (to put it charitably) is a hugely flawed survey. Reference to it in another “peer reviewed” survey shows does not bode well for the quality of the results.

Analysis of the Survey Questions here and actual questions here

Climate Change Questionnaire of Univ of Western Australia

This is the climate change questionnaire questions in the survey I answered in early June 2012 and commented upon here.

UPDATE

It has been brought to my attention that this is NOT the questionnaire used in Lewandowsky et al 2012. There are similarities but this appears to be a development of the 2010 survey, and was probably being trailed at Watching the Deniers site. It was located on the University of Western Australia site – try the link.  THE ACTUAL (& shorter) QUESTIONNAIRE is analyzed here.

I believe that this survey is the basis of the recent paper:-

Lewandowsky, Oberauer & GignacNASA faked the moon landing|Therefore (Climate) Science is a Hoax: An Anatomy of the Motivated Rejection of Science (in press, Psychological Science)

Note to Professor Lewandowsky of University of Western Australia

If this is not the original survey, but has been doctored in any way, I will happily publish the actual survey. I will also provide details of the researcher and the url for any investigation. I can be contacted through the moderated comments. I am not aware of any copyright restrictions on reposting the questions. I accessed this from “Watching the Deniers” website, where there was no mention of copyright material. Neither was there any mention of copyright on the introductory front page. The doing a search I only came across a link to a 2010 survey. Neither could I find a link within The University of Western Australia Website, though it is on their servers.

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements:

 

 

 

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

I believe that the climate is always changing and what we are currently observing is just natural fluctuation.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I believe that the climate is always changing and what we are currently observing is just natural fluctuation. Strongly Disagree

I believe that the climate is always changing and what we are currently observing is just natural fluctuation. Disagree

I believe that the climate is always changing and what we are currently observing is just natural fluctuation. Neutral

I believe that the climate is always changing and what we are currently observing is just natural fluctuation. Agree

I believe that the climate is always changing and what we are currently observing is just natural fluctuation. Strongly Agree

I believe that most of the warming over the last 50 years is due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I believe that most of the warming over the last 50 years is due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Strongly Disagree

I believe that most of the warming over the last 50 years is due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Disagree

I believe that most of the warming over the last 50 years is due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Neutral

I believe that most of the warming over the last 50 years is due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Agree

I believe that most of the warming over the last 50 years is due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Strongly Agree

I believe that the burning of fossil fuels over the last 50 years has caused serious damage to the planet’s climate.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I believe that the burning of fossil fuels over the last 50 years has caused serious damage to the planet’s climate. Strongly Disagree

I believe that the burning of fossil fuels over the last 50 years has caused serious damage to the planet’s climate. Disagree

I believe that the burning of fossil fuels over the last 50 years has caused serious damage to the planet’s climate. Neutral

I believe that the burning of fossil fuels over the last 50 years has caused serious damage to the planet’s climate. Agree

I believe that the burning of fossil fuels over the last 50 years has caused serious damage to the planet’s climate. Strongly Agree

Human CO2 emissions cause climate change.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Human CO2 emissions cause climate change. Strongly Disagree

Human CO2 emissions cause climate change. Disagree

Human CO2 emissions cause climate change. Neutral

Human CO2 emissions cause climate change. Agree

Human CO2 emissions cause climate change. Strongly Agree

Humans are too insignificant to have an appreciable impact on global temperature.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Humans are too insignificant to have an appreciable impact on global temperature. Strongly Disagree

Humans are too insignificant to have an appreciable impact on global temperature. Disagree

Humans are too insignificant to have an appreciable impact on global temperature. Neutral

Humans are too insignificant to have an appreciable impact on global temperature. Agree

Humans are too insignificant to have an appreciable impact on global temperature. Strongly Agree

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements:

 

 

 

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

I believe that genetic modification is an important and viable contribution to help feed the world’s rapidly growing population.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I believe that genetic modification is an important and viable contribution to help feed the world’s rapidly growing population. Strongly Disagree

I believe that genetic modification is an important and viable contribution to help feed the world’s rapidly growing population. Disagree

I believe that genetic modification is an important and viable contribution to help feed the world’s rapidly growing population. Neutral

I believe that genetic modification is an important and viable contribution to help feed the world’s rapidly growing population. Agree

I believe that genetic modification is an important and viable contribution to help feed the world’s rapidly growing population. Strongly Agree

I believe genetically engineered foods have already damaged the environment.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I believe genetically engineered foods have already damaged the environment. Strongly Disagree

I believe genetically engineered foods have already damaged the environment. Disagree

I believe genetically engineered foods have already damaged the environment. Neutral

I believe genetically engineered foods have already damaged the environment. Agree

I believe genetically engineered foods have already damaged the environment. Strongly Agree

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The consequences of genetic modification have been tested exhaustively in the lab, and only foods that have been found safe will be made available to the public. Strongly Disagree

The consequences of genetic modification have been tested exhaustively in the lab, and only foods that have been found safe will be made available to the public. Disagree

The consequences of genetic modification have been tested exhaustively in the lab, and only foods that have been found safe will be made available to the public. Neutral

The consequences of genetic modification have been tested exhaustively in the lab, and only foods that have been found safe will be made available to the public. Agree

The consequences of genetic modification have been tested exhaustively in the lab, and only foods that have been found safe will be made available to the public. Strongly Agree

I believe that because there are so many unknowns, that it is dangerous to manipulate the natural genetic material of foods.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I believe that because there are so many unknowns, that it is dangerous to manipulate the natural genetic material of foods. Strongly Disagree

I believe that because there are so many unknowns, that it is dangerous to manipulate the natural genetic material of foods. Disagree

I believe that because there are so many unknowns, that it is dangerous to manipulate the natural genetic material of foods. Neutral

I believe that because there are so many unknowns, that it is dangerous to manipulate the natural genetic material of foods. Agree

I believe that because there are so many unknowns, that it is dangerous to manipulate the natural genetic material of foods. Strongly Agree

Genetic modification of foods is a safe and reliable technology.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Genetic modification of foods is a safe and reliable technology. Strongly Disagree

Genetic modification of foods is a safe and reliable technology. Disagree

Genetic modification of foods is a safe and reliable technology. Neutral

Genetic modification of foods is a safe and reliable technology. Agree

Genetic modification of foods is a safe and reliable technology. Strongly Agree

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements:

 

 

 

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

I believe that vaccines are a safe and reliable way to help avert the spread of preventable diseases.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I believe that vaccines are a safe and reliable way to help avert the spread of preventable diseases. Strongly Disagree

I believe that vaccines are a safe and reliable way to help avert the spread of preventable diseases. Disagree

I believe that vaccines are a safe and reliable way to help avert the spread of preventable diseases. Neutral

I believe that vaccines are a safe and reliable way to help avert the spread of preventable diseases. Agree

I believe that vaccines are a safe and reliable way to help avert the spread of preventable diseases. Strongly Agree

I believe that vaccines have negative side effects that outweigh the benefits of vaccination for children.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I believe that vaccines have negative side effects that outweigh the benefits of vaccination for children. Strongly Disagree

I believe that vaccines have negative side effects that outweigh the benefits of vaccination for children. Disagree

I believe that vaccines have negative side effects that outweigh the benefits of vaccination for children. Neutral

I believe that vaccines have negative side effects that outweigh the benefits of vaccination for children. Agree

I believe that vaccines have negative side effects that outweigh the benefits of vaccination for children. Strongly Agree

Vaccines are thoroughly tested in the laboratory and wouldn’t be made available to the public unless it was known that they are safe.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Vaccines are thoroughly tested in the laboratory and wouldn’t be made available to the public unless it was known that they are safe. Strongly Disagree

Vaccines are thoroughly tested in the laboratory and wouldn’t be made available to the public unless it was known that they are safe. Disagree

Vaccines are thoroughly tested in the laboratory and wouldn’t be made available to the public unless it was known that they are safe. Neutral

Vaccines are thoroughly tested in the laboratory and wouldn’t be made available to the public unless it was known that they are safe. Agree

Vaccines are thoroughly tested in the laboratory and wouldn’t be made available to the public unless it was known that they are safe. Strongly Agree

The risk of vaccinations to maim and kill children outweighs their health benefits

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The risk of vaccinations to maim and kill children outweighs their health benefits Strongly Disagree

The risk of vaccinations to maim and kill children outweighs their health benefits Disagree

The risk of vaccinations to maim and kill children outweighs their health benefits Neutral

The risk of vaccinations to maim and kill children outweighs their health benefits Agree

The risk of vaccinations to maim and kill children outweighs their health benefits Strongly Agree

Vaccinations are one of the most significant contributions to public health.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Vaccinations are one of the most significant contributions to public health. Strongly Disagree

Vaccinations are one of the most significant contributions to public health. Disagree

Vaccinations are one of the most significant contributions to public health. Neutral

Vaccinations are one of the most significant contributions to public health. Agree

Vaccinations are one of the most significant contributions to public health. Strongly Agree

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements:

 

 

 

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

I am politically more liberal than conservative.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I am politically more liberal than conservative. Strongly Disagree

I am politically more liberal than conservative. Disagree

I am politically more liberal than conservative. Neutral

I am politically more liberal than conservative. Agree

I am politically more liberal than conservative. Strongly Agree

In any election, given a choice between a Republican and a Democratic candidate, I will select the Republican over the Democrat.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: In any election, given a choice between a Republican and a Democratic candidate, I will select the Republican over the Democrat. Strongly Disagree

In any election, given a choice between a Republican and a Democratic candidate, I will select the Republican over the Democrat. Disagree

In any election, given a choice between a Republican and a Democratic candidate, I will select the Republican over the Democrat. Neutral

In any election, given a choice between a Republican and a Democratic candidate, I will select the Republican over the Democrat. Agree

In any election, given a choice between a Republican and a Democratic candidate, I will select the Republican over the Democrat. Strongly Agree

Communism has been proven to be a failed political ideology.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Communism has been proven to be a failed political ideology. Strongly Disagree

Communism has been proven to be a failed political ideology. Disagree

Communism has been proven to be a failed political ideology. Neutral

Communism has been proven to be a failed political ideology. Agree

Communism has been proven to be a failed political ideology. Strongly Agree

I cannot see myself ever voting to elect conservative candidates.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I cannot see myself ever voting to elect conservative candidates. Strongly Disagree

I cannot see myself ever voting to elect conservative candidates. Disagree

I cannot see myself ever voting to elect conservative candidates. Neutral

I cannot see myself ever voting to elect conservative candidates. Agree

I cannot see myself ever voting to elect conservative candidates. Strongly Agree

The major national media are too left-wing for my taste.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The major national media are too left-wing for my taste. Strongly Disagree

The major national media are too left-wing for my taste. Disagree

The major national media are too left-wing for my taste. Neutral

The major national media are too left-wing for my taste. Agree

The major national media are too left-wing for my taste. Strongly Agree

Socialism has many advantages over capitalism.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Socialism has many advantages over capitalism. Strongly Disagree

Socialism has many advantages over capitalism. Disagree

Socialism has many advantages over capitalism. Neutral

Socialism has many advantages over capitalism. Agree

Socialism has many advantages over capitalism. Strongly Agree

On balance, I lean politically more to the left than to the right.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: On balance, I lean politically more to the left than to the right. Strongly Disagree

On balance, I lean politically more to the left than to the right. Disagree

On balance, I lean politically more to the left than to the right. Neutral

On balance, I lean politically more to the left than to the right. Agree

On balance, I lean politically more to the left than to the right. Strongly Agree

Select ‘neutral’ from the options below

 

 

 

Srongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

 

 

 

Select ‘neutral’ from the options below   Srongly Disagree

  Disagree

  Neutral

  Agree

  Strongly Agree

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements:

 

 

 

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

An economic system based on free markets unrestrained by government interference automatically works best to meet human needs.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: An economic system based on free markets unrestrained by government interference automatically works best to meet human needs. Strongly Disagree

An economic system based on free markets unrestrained by government interference automatically works best to meet human needs. Disagree

An economic system based on free markets unrestrained by government interference automatically works best to meet human needs. Neutral

An economic system based on free markets unrestrained by government interference automatically works best to meet human needs. Agree

An economic system based on free markets unrestrained by government interference automatically works best to meet human needs. Strongly Agree

The free market system may be efficient for resource allocation but it is limited in its capacity to promote social justice.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The free market system may be efficient for resource allocation but it is limited in its capacity to promote social justice. Strongly Disagree

The free market system may be efficient for resource allocation but it is limited in its capacity to promote social justice. Disagree

The free market system may be efficient for resource allocation but it is limited in its capacity to promote social justice. Neutral

The free market system may be efficient for resource allocation but it is limited in its capacity to promote social justice. Agree

The free market system may be efficient for resource allocation but it is limited in its capacity to promote social justice. Strongly Agree

The preservation of the free market system is more important than localized environmental concerns.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The preservation of the free market system is more important than localized environmental concerns. Strongly Disagree

The preservation of the free market system is more important than localized environmental concerns. Disagree

The preservation of the free market system is more important than localized environmental concerns. Neutral

The preservation of the free market system is more important than localized environmental concerns. Agree

The preservation of the free market system is more important than localized environmental concerns. Strongly Agree

Free and unregulated markets pose important threats to sustainable development.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Free and unregulated markets pose important threats to sustainable development. Strongly Disagree

Free and unregulated markets pose important threats to sustainable development. Disagree

Free and unregulated markets pose important threats to sustainable development. Neutral

Free and unregulated markets pose important threats to sustainable development. Agree

Free and unregulated markets pose important threats to sustainable development. Strongly Agree

The free market system is likely to promote unsustainable consumption.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The free market system is likely to promote unsustainable consumption. Strongly Disagree

The free market system is likely to promote unsustainable consumption. Disagree

The free market system is likely to promote unsustainable consumption. Neutral

The free market system is likely to promote unsustainable consumption. Agree

The free market system is likely to promote unsustainable consumption. Strongly Agree

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements:

 

 

 

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

A powerful and secretive group known as the New World Order is planning to eventually rule the world through an autonomous world government which would replace sovereign governments.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: A powerful and secretive group known as the New World Order is planning to eventually rule the world through an autonomous world government which would replace sovereign governments. Strongly Disagree

A powerful and secretive group known as the New World Order is planning to eventually rule the world through an autonomous world government which would replace sovereign governments. Disagree

A powerful and secretive group known as the New World Order is planning to eventually rule the world through an autonomous world government which would replace sovereign governments. Neutral

A powerful and secretive group known as the New World Order is planning to eventually rule the world through an autonomous world government which would replace sovereign governments. Agree

A powerful and secretive group known as the New World Order is planning to eventually rule the world through an autonomous world government which would replace sovereign governments. Strongly Agree

The assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. was the result of an organized conspiracy by U.S. government agencies such as the CIA and FBI.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. was the result of an organized conspiracy by U.S. government agencies such as the CIA and FBI. Strongly Disagree

The assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. was the result of an organized conspiracy by U.S. government agencies such as the CIA and FBI. Disagree

The assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. was the result of an organized conspiracy by U.S. government agencies such as the CIA and FBI. Neutral

The assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. was the result of an organized conspiracy by U.S. government agencies such as the CIA and FBI. Agree

The assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. was the result of an organized conspiracy by U.S. government agencies such as the CIA and FBI. Strongly Agree

The Apollo moon landings never happened and were staged in a Hollywood film studio.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The Apollo moon landings never happened and were staged in a Hollywood film studio. Strongly Disagree

The Apollo moon landings never happened and were staged in a Hollywood film studio. Disagree

The Apollo moon landings never happened and were staged in a Hollywood film studio. Neutral

The Apollo moon landings never happened and were staged in a Hollywood film studio. Agree

The Apollo moon landings never happened and were staged in a Hollywood film studio. Strongly Agree

The assassination of John F. Kennedy was not committed by the lone gunman Lee Harvey Oswald but was rather a detailed organized conspiracy to kill the President.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The assassination of John F. Kennedy was not committed by the lone gunman Lee Harvey Oswald but was rather a detailed organized conspiracy to kill the President. Strongly Disagree

The assassination of John F. Kennedy was not committed by the lone gunman Lee Harvey Oswald but was rather a detailed organized conspiracy to kill the President. Disagree

The assassination of John F. Kennedy was not committed by the lone gunman Lee Harvey Oswald but was rather a detailed organized conspiracy to kill the President. Neutral

The assassination of John F. Kennedy was not committed by the lone gunman Lee Harvey Oswald but was rather a detailed organized conspiracy to kill the President. Agree

The assassination of John F. Kennedy was not committed by the lone gunman Lee Harvey Oswald but was rather a detailed organized conspiracy to kill the President. Strongly Agree

The U.S. government allowed the 9-11 attacks to take place so that it would have an excuse to achieve foreign (e.g., wars in Afghanistan and Iraq) and domestic (e.g., attacks on civil liberties) goals that had been determined prior to the attacks.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The U.S. government allowed the 9-11 attacks to take place so that it would have an excuse to achieve foreign (e.g., wars in Afghanistan and Iraq) and domestic (e.g., attacks on civil liberties) goals that had been determined prior to the attacks. Strongly Disagree

The U.S. government allowed the 9-11 attacks to take place so that it would have an excuse to achieve foreign (e.g., wars in Afghanistan and Iraq) and domestic (e.g., attacks on civil liberties) goals that had been determined prior to the attacks. Disagree

The U.S. government allowed the 9-11 attacks to take place so that it would have an excuse to achieve foreign (e.g., wars in Afghanistan and Iraq) and domestic (e.g., attacks on civil liberties) goals that had been determined prior to the attacks. Neutral

The U.S. government allowed the 9-11 attacks to take place so that it would have an excuse to achieve foreign (e.g., wars in Afghanistan and Iraq) and domestic (e.g., attacks on civil liberties) goals that had been determined prior to the attacks. Agree

The U.S. government allowed the 9-11 attacks to take place so that it would have an excuse to achieve foreign (e.g., wars in Afghanistan and Iraq) and domestic (e.g., attacks on civil liberties) goals that had been determined prior to the attacks. Strongly Agree

Princess Diana’s death was not an accident but rather an organised assassination by members of the British royal family who disliked her.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Princess Diana’s death was not an accident but rather an organised assassination by members of the British royal family who disliked her. Strongly Disagree

Princess Diana’s death was not an accident but rather an organised assassination by members of the British royal family who disliked her. Disagree

Princess Diana’s death was not an accident but rather an organised assassination by members of the British royal family who disliked her. Neutral

Princess Diana’s death was not an accident but rather an organised assassination by members of the British royal family who disliked her. Agree

Princess Diana’s death was not an accident but rather an organised assassination by members of the British royal family who disliked her. Strongly Agree

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements:

 

 

 

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

The claim that the climate is changing due to emissions from fossil fuels is a hoax perpetrated by corrupt scientists who wish to spend more taxpayer money on climate research.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The claim that the climate is changing due to emissions from fossil fuels is a hoax perpetrated by corrupt scientists who wish to spend more taxpayer money on climate research. Strongly Disagree

The claim that the climate is changing due to emissions from fossil fuels is a hoax perpetrated by corrupt scientists who wish to spend more taxpayer money on climate research. Disagree

The claim that the climate is changing due to emissions from fossil fuels is a hoax perpetrated by corrupt scientists who wish to spend more taxpayer money on climate research. Neutral

The claim that the climate is changing due to emissions from fossil fuels is a hoax perpetrated by corrupt scientists who wish to spend more taxpayer money on climate research. Agree

The claim that the climate is changing due to emissions from fossil fuels is a hoax perpetrated by corrupt scientists who wish to spend more taxpayer money on climate research. Strongly Agree

U.S. agencies intentionally created the AIDS epidemic and administered it to Black and gay men in the 1970s.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: U.S. agencies intentionally created the AIDS epidemic and administered it to Black and gay men in the 1970s. Strongly Disagree

U.S. agencies intentionally created the AIDS epidemic and administered it to Black and gay men in the 1970s. Disagree

U.S. agencies intentionally created the AIDS epidemic and administered it to Black and gay men in the 1970s. Neutral

U.S. agencies intentionally created the AIDS epidemic and administered it to Black and gay men in the 1970s. Agree

U.S. agencies intentionally created the AIDS epidemic and administered it to Black and gay men in the 1970s. Strongly Agree

The alleged link between second-hand tobacco smoke and ill health is based on bogus science and is an attempt by a corrupt cartel of medical researchers to replace rational science with dogma.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The alleged link between second-hand tobacco smoke and ill health is based on bogus science and is an attempt by a corrupt cartel of medical researchers to replace rational science with dogma. Strongly Disagree

The alleged link between second-hand tobacco smoke and ill health is based on bogus science and is an attempt by a corrupt cartel of medical researchers to replace rational science with dogma. Disagree

The alleged link between second-hand tobacco smoke and ill health is based on bogus science and is an attempt by a corrupt cartel of medical researchers to replace rational science with dogma. Neutral

The alleged link between second-hand tobacco smoke and ill health is based on bogus science and is an attempt by a corrupt cartel of medical researchers to replace rational science with dogma. Agree

The alleged link between second-hand tobacco smoke and ill health is based on bogus science and is an attempt by a corrupt cartel of medical researchers to replace rational science with dogma. Strongly Agree

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements:

 

 

 

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

The HIV virus causes AIDS.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The HIV virus causes AIDS. Strongly Disagree

The HIV virus causes AIDS. Disagree

The HIV virus causes AIDS. Neutral

The HIV virus causes AIDS. Agree

The HIV virus causes AIDS. Strongly Agree

Smoking causes lung cancer.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Smoking causes lung cancer. Strongly Disagree

Smoking causes lung cancer. Disagree

Smoking causes lung cancer. Neutral

Smoking causes lung cancer. Agree

Smoking causes lung cancer. Strongly Agree

Lead in drinking water poses a serious long-term health risk.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Lead in drinking water poses a serious long-term health risk. Strongly Disagree

Lead in drinking water poses a serious long-term health risk. Disagree

Lead in drinking water poses a serious long-term health risk. Neutral

Lead in drinking water poses a serious long-term health risk. Agree

Lead in drinking water poses a serious long-term health risk. Strongly Agree

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements:

 

 

 

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

The HIV virus causes AIDS.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The HIV virus causes AIDS. Strongly Disagree

The HIV virus causes AIDS. Disagree

The HIV virus causes AIDS. Neutral

The HIV virus causes AIDS. Agree

The HIV virus causes AIDS. Strongly Agree

Smoking causes lung cancer.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Smoking causes lung cancer. Strongly Disagree

Smoking causes lung cancer. Disagree

Smoking causes lung cancer. Neutral

Smoking causes lung cancer. Agree

Smoking causes lung cancer. Strongly Agree

Lead in drinking water poses a serious long-term health risk.

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Lead in drinking water poses a serious long-term health risk. Strongly Disagree

Lead in drinking water poses a serious long-term health risk. Disagree

Lead in drinking water poses a serious long-term health risk. Neutral

Lead in drinking water poses a serious long-term health risk. Agree

Lead in drinking water poses a serious long-term health risk. Strongly Agree


Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements:

 

 

 

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

God is important in my life

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: God is important in my life Strongly Disagree

God is important in my life Disagree

God is important in my life Neutral

God is important in my life Agree

God is important in my life Strongly Agree

I believe there is a life after death

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I believe there is a life after death Strongly Disagree

I believe there is a life after death Disagree

I believe there is a life after death Neutral

I believe there is a life after death Agree

I believe there is a life after death Strongly Agree

I get comfort or strength from religion

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I get comfort or strength from religion Strongly Disagree

I get comfort or strength from religion Disagree

I get comfort or strength from religion Neutral

I get comfort or strength from religion Agree

I get comfort or strength from religion Strongly Agree

There is no proof of God: if there is a God, he would have shown himself by now

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: There is no proof of God: if there is a God, he would have shown himself by now Strongly Disagree

There is no proof of God: if there is a God, he would have shown himself by now Disagree

There is no proof of God: if there is a God, he would have shown himself by now Neutral

There is no proof of God: if there is a God, he would have shown himself by now Agree

There is no proof of God: if there is a God, he would have shown himself by now Strongly Agree

I think of myself as a religious person

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I think of myself as a religious person Strongly Disagree

I think of myself as a religious person Disagree

I think of myself as a religious person Neutral

I think of myself as a religious person Agree

I think of myself as a religious person Strongly Agree

I have made a personal commitment to live my life for God

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I have made a personal commitment to live my life for God Strongly Disagree

I have made a personal commitment to live my life for God Disagree

I have made a personal commitment to live my life for God Neutral

I have made a personal commitment to live my life for God Agree

I have made a personal commitment to live my life for God Strongly Agree

I have had an experience of spiritual worship that was very moving and powerful

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I have had an experience of spiritual worship that was very moving and powerful Strongly Disagree

I have had an experience of spiritual worship that was very moving and powerful Disagree

I have had an experience of spiritual worship that was very moving and powerful Neutral

I have had an experience of spiritual worship that was very moving and powerful Agree

I have had an experience of spiritual worship that was very moving and powerful Strongly Agree

I have experienced a definite answer to prayer or specific guidance from God

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I have experienced a definite answer to prayer or specific guidance from God Strongly Disagree

I have experienced a definite answer to prayer or specific guidance from God Disagree

I have experienced a definite answer to prayer or specific guidance from God Neutral

I have experienced a definite answer to prayer or specific guidance from God Agree

I have experienced a definite answer to prayer or specific guidance from God Strongly Agree

Select option ‘C’ from below:

 

 

 

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

 

 

 

Select option ‘C’ from below:   A

  B

  C

  D

  E

  F

  G

  H

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements:

 

 

 

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

Modern humans are the product of evolutionary processes that have occurred over millions of years

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Modern humans are the product of evolutionary processes that have occurred over millions of years Strongly Disagree

Modern humans are the product of evolutionary processes that have occurred over millions of years Disagree

Modern humans are the product of evolutionary processes that have occurred over millions of years Neutral

Modern humans are the product of evolutionary processes that have occurred over millions of years Agree

Modern humans are the product of evolutionary processes that have occurred over millions of years Strongly Agree

The theory of evolution is based on speculation and not valid scientific observation and testing

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: The theory of evolution is based on speculation and not valid scientific observation and testing Strongly Disagree

The theory of evolution is based on speculation and not valid scientific observation and testing Disagree

The theory of evolution is based on speculation and not valid scientific observation and testing Neutral

The theory of evolution is based on speculation and not valid scientific observation and testing Agree

The theory of evolution is based on speculation and not valid scientific observation and testing Strongly Agree

Most scientists accept evolutionary theory to be a scientifically valid theory

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Most scientists accept evolutionary theory to be a scientifically valid theory Strongly Disagree

Most scientists accept evolutionary theory to be a scientifically valid theory Disagree

Most scientists accept evolutionary theory to be a scientifically valid theory Neutral

Most scientists accept evolutionary theory to be a scientifically valid theory Agree

Most scientists accept evolutionary theory to be a scientifically valid theory Strongly Agree

There is a significant body of data that supports evolutionary theory

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: There is a significant body of data that supports evolutionary theory Strongly Disagree

There is a significant body of data that supports evolutionary theory Disagree

There is a significant body of data that supports evolutionary theory Neutral

There is a significant body of data that supports evolutionary theory Agree

There is a significant body of data that supports evolutionary theory Strongly Agree

Humans exist today in essentially the same form in which they always have

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Humans exist today in essentially the same form in which they always have Strongly Disagree

Humans exist today in essentially the same form in which they always have Disagree

Humans exist today in essentially the same form in which they always have Neutral

Humans exist today in essentially the same form in which they always have Agree

Humans exist today in essentially the same form in which they always have Strongly Agree

Evolution is a scientifically valid theory

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Evolution is a scientifically valid theory Strongly Disagree

Evolution is a scientifically valid theory Disagree

Evolution is a scientifically valid theory Neutral

Evolution is a scientifically valid theory Agree

Evolution is a scientifically valid theory Strongly Agree

Current evolutionary theory is the result of sound scientific research and methodology

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Current evolutionary theory is the result of sound scientific research and methodology Strongly Disagree

Current evolutionary theory is the result of sound scientific research and methodology Disagree

Current evolutionary theory is the result of sound scientific research and methodology Neutral

Current evolutionary theory is the result of sound scientific research and methodology Agree

Current evolutionary theory is the result of sound scientific research and methodology Strongly Agree

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements:

 

 

 

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

Corporations are not respectful of laws

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Corporations are not respectful of laws Strongly Disagree

Corporations are not respectful of laws Disagree

Corporations are not respectful of laws Neutral

Corporations are not respectful of laws Agree

Corporations are not respectful of laws Strongly Agree

Corporations do not accept accountability for their actions

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Corporations do not accept accountability for their actions Strongly Disagree

Corporations do not accept accountability for their actions Disagree

Corporations do not accept accountability for their actions Neutral

Corporations do not accept accountability for their actions Agree

Corporations do not accept accountability for their actions Strongly Agree

People who run corporations will lie if doing so will increase company profits

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: People who run corporations will lie if doing so will increase company profits Strongly Disagree

People who run corporations will lie if doing so will increase company profits Disagree

People who run corporations will lie if doing so will increase company profits Neutral

People who run corporations will lie if doing so will increase company profits Agree

People who run corporations will lie if doing so will increase company profits Strongly Agree

Corporations do not care about acting ethically

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Corporations do not care about acting ethically Strongly Disagree

Corporations do not care about acting ethically Disagree

Corporations do not care about acting ethically Neutral

Corporations do not care about acting ethically Agree

Corporations do not care about acting ethically Strongly Agree

Corporations will break laws if they can make more money from it

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Corporations will break laws if they can make more money from it Strongly Disagree

Corporations will break laws if they can make more money from it Disagree

Corporations will break laws if they can make more money from it Neutral

Corporations will break laws if they can make more money from it Agree

Corporations will break laws if they can make more money from it Strongly Agree

Corporations put their own interests above the public’s interests

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Corporations put their own interests above the public’s interests Strongly Disagree

Corporations put their own interests above the public’s interests Disagree

Corporations put their own interests above the public’s interests Neutral

Corporations put their own interests above the public’s interests Agree

Corporations put their own interests above the public’s interests Strongly Agree

Corporations are driven by greed

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Corporations are driven by greed Strongly Disagree

Corporations are driven by greed Disagree

Corporations are driven by greed Neutral

Corporations are driven by greed Agree

Corporations are driven by greed Strongly Agree

Corporations care only about money

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Corporations care only about money Strongly Disagree

Corporations care only about money Disagree

Corporations care only about money Neutral

Corporations care only about money Agree

Corporations care only about money Strongly Agree

Corporations want power at any cost

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Corporations want power at any cost Strongly Disagree

Corporations want power at any cost Disagree

Corporations want power at any cost Neutral

Corporations want power at any cost Agree

Corporations want power at any cost Strongly Agree

Corporations take a lot more than they give

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Corporations take a lot more than they give Strongly Disagree

Corporations take a lot more than they give Disagree

Corporations take a lot more than they give Neutral

Corporations take a lot more than they give Agree

Corporations take a lot more than they give Strongly Agree

Corporations intentionally deceive the public

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Corporations intentionally deceive the public Strongly Disagree

Corporations intentionally deceive the public Disagree

Corporations intentionally deceive the public Neutral

Corporations intentionally deceive the public Agree

Corporations intentionally deceive the public Strongly Agree

Corporations do not consider the needs of their employees when making business decisions

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Corporations do not consider the needs of their employees when making business decisions Strongly Disagree

Corporations do not consider the needs of their employees when making business decisions Disagree

Corporations do not consider the needs of their employees when making business decisions Neutral

Corporations do not consider the needs of their employees when making business decisions Agree

Corporations do not consider the needs of their employees when making business decisions Strongly Agree

Corporations exploit their workers

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Corporations exploit their workers Strongly Disagree

Corporations exploit their workers Disagree

Corporations exploit their workers Neutral

Corporations exploit their workers Agree

Corporations exploit their workers Strongly Agree

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements:

 

 

 

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Strongly Agree

I have so much in life to be thankful for

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I have so much in life to be thankful for Strongly Disagree

I have so much in life to be thankful for Disagree

I have so much in life to be thankful for Neutral

I have so much in life to be thankful for Agree

I have so much in life to be thankful for Strongly Agree

If I had to list everything that I felt grateful for, it would be a very long list

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: If I had to list everything that I felt grateful for, it would be a very long list Strongly Disagree

If I had to list everything that I felt grateful for, it would be a very long list Disagree

If I had to list everything that I felt grateful for, it would be a very long list Neutral

If I had to list everything that I felt grateful for, it would be a very long list Agree

If I had to list everything that I felt grateful for, it would be a very long list Strongly Agree

When I look at the world, I don’t see much to be grateful for

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: When I look at the world, I don’t see much to be grateful for Strongly Disagree

When I look at the world, I don’t see much to be grateful for Disagree

When I look at the world, I don’t see much to be grateful for Neutral

When I look at the world, I don’t see much to be grateful for Agree

When I look at the world, I don’t see much to be grateful for Strongly Agree

I am grateful to a wide variety of people

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: I am grateful to a wide variety of people Strongly Disagree

I am grateful to a wide variety of people Disagree

I am grateful to a wide variety of people Neutral

I am grateful to a wide variety of people Agree

I am grateful to a wide variety of people Strongly Agree

As I get older I find myself more able to appreciate the people, events, and situations that have been part of my life history

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: As I get older I find myself more able to appreciate the people, events, and situations that have been part of my life history Strongly Disagree

As I get older I find myself more able to appreciate the people, events, and situations that have been part of my life history Disagree

As I get older I find myself more able to appreciate the people, events, and situations that have been part of my life history Neutral

As I get older I find myself more able to appreciate the people, events, and situations that have been part of my life history Agree

As I get older I find myself more able to appreciate the people, events, and situations that have been part of my life history Strongly Agree

Long amounts of time can go by before I feel grateful to something or someone

 

 

Please indicate how much you agree with the following statements: Long amounts of time can go by before I feel grateful to something or someone Strongly Disagree

Long amounts of time can go by before I feel grateful to something or someone Disagree

Long amounts of time can go by before I feel grateful to something or someone Neutral

Long amounts of time can go by before I feel grateful to something or someone Agree

Long amounts of time can go by before I feel grateful to something or someone Strongly Agree

What is your age?


What is your gender?

BBC Newsround is misleading our children on climate change impacts

For nearly 40 years the BBC has shown “Newsround” a children’s version of the news. This morning I caught a glimpse of a report on Rio+20 at around 7.40am, with examples from the Isle of Man. In the main bulletin at 5.30pm a much fuller report was given. This later report was again from the Isle of Man, but with a very different slant. (UK based people view here) I have made two separate complaints:-

Complaint about the 7.40am report

Newsround reported on the Rio+20 meetings – aimed at getting agreements to combat global warming. Then switched to the Isle of Man. Mentioned about pollution, coastal erosion and oil running out. Then has a High School Girl show us the impact of recent coastal erosion. This gave the following misleading impressions.

1. Pollution is solely about global warming. It is not.

2. Man-made climate change caused the erosion. If it did (through contributing to a sea-level rise of less than 30cm in the last century) it was a very minor effect. Coastal erosion, with beach build-up elsewhere is a natural feature.

3. If one believes that CO2 is causing adverse climate change then oil running out is a positive thing. It should mention that Rio+20 is looking to find ways to encourage us to leave the stuff in the ground.

Complaint about the 5.30pm report

1. Local coal supplies were running out, which an elderly lady was finding more expensive. Missed out that this was (a) a local problem (b) coal is the worst of the fossil fuels for causing climate change (c) there are abundant global supplies (d) so Rio+20 is looking encouraging making it more expensive to leave the stuff in the ground.

2. A schoolgirl pointing to cliff erosion, the implication that this was caused by climate change. It was not pointed out that in the last 20 years sea levels have risen by just 0.06 metres, so the 20 metres of retreat of a soft cliff will be approximately 100% due to natural coastal erosion.

3. A schoolboy saying he can no longer kayak in the sea due to raw sewage being pumped into the sea. This is a local problem. In most areas of Europe this is reducing by national government action.

Summary

Newsround shows quite contradictory messages through editing. It creates the impression that only global governance can solve what are local problems; creates the misleading view that nasty humans are the cause of all the environmental issues; and fails to point out that the “solutions” to climate change involve making fossil fuels more expensive. That means old ladies who continue to use coal getting poorer; children being increasingly denied holidays in warmer countries; and parents spending less time with their children due to having to spend longer travelling by public transport, as car travel becomes too expensive.

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