John McDonnell should be cast to the political fringes

John McDonell’s jest that if he could go back in time he would “assassinate Thatcher” has caused some, rightfully, harsh words from Iain Dale. Here is my response.

McDonnell should be held up as an extreme element of New Labour thinking. It is OK to say something in jest, no matter how ludicrous, if it generates applause. It is but the uglier side of political spin. We can see through this one, but not as easily see through

1. “Labour Investment v. Tory Cuts”

2. “Beyond boom and bust”

3. Investment with no monetary returns funded through the deficit.

4. Daily government initiatives based on politically funded “research” that any objective researcher would throw in the waste bin.(And were, mostly binned once they had filled the news bulletins for a day).

 Iain Dale and Dan Hannan often have good things to say about their opponents, as did Tony Blair about Mrs Thatcher. If mainstream politicians cannot see the good in mainstream opponents, then they should not be cast to the fringes, for they are unlikely to have the ability to see their own faults. They should not be a candidate for the leader of the opposition.

Cameron gets the message on the Legacy of Labour

David Cameron yesterday started blaming the current deficit problems on the last Labour Government.  Benedict Brogan on his Telegraph Blog quotes Cameron

 “I think people understand by now that the debt crisis is the legacy of the last government. But exactly the same applies to the action we will need to take to deal with it. If there are cuts – they are part of that legacy.”

I have been thinking along the same lines for a while now. See for instance.


http://manicbeancounter.wordpress.com/2010/03/21/the-impact-of-labour-on-the-current-crisis/


http://manicbeancounter.wordpress.com/2010/03/22/the-economic-legacy-of-labour-a-summary-for-the-tories/


http://manicbeancounter.wordpress.com/2010/03/24/the-golden-rule-has-lead-to-economic-ruin/


http://manicbeancounter.wordpress.com/2010/04/04/labour-bashing-business-to-save-facing-their-awful-reality/

I believe it is as important for the future to understand the political element of how Labour went so wrong. The Golden Rule and the denial of the problem until it was too late have made a serious recession into a painful period of painful cuts in expenditure and large tax rises. This nation will be poorer for a generation as a result.

Higher Tax Rates – a Poison Pill for Government Finances?

John Redwood and the Adam Smith Institute may have inadvertently exposed a poison pill left by the outgoing Labour Government.

I completely agree with the contention that in the medium to long term higher tax rates reduce revenue. The ASI obtain this conclusion from the analysis of Capital Gains Tax Rates and revenues over the past fifty years. However, looking at the ASI’s graph on page 3, suggests something important for short-term tax policy as well.

For instance, in 1986, the year before tax rates rose from 20% to 28%, revenue rose 96%. In 2002, the year before tax rates dropped from 20% to 15%, tax revenue dropped 26%.

The expectation of a change in tax rates is highly significant on short–term revenue as people optimise the year in which they declare the capital gains

The UK had just the same effect with income tax in March. The deficit for the last financial year was £11bn lower than forecast in the last budget, (due to higher tax receipts from top earners than expected), and over £20bn lower than forecast last autumn.

In the budget I would therefore expect an adjustment for lower than expected tax revenues from higher rate tax payers in next month’s budget of at least £10bn.

Cutting the Deficit – The PR aspect for the Tories.

There is growing recognition that the job of cutting the deficit will destroy the electoral prospects of those carrying out the task for a generation. Capitalists at work, have (very much tongue in cheek) suggested that a war might be needed to save the next government, much as the Falklands boosted the Tories and helped win the 1983 General Election. A war would certainly help, but such a dreadful circumstance should not be wished upon the nation. The Falklands War was a minor skirmish with a decisive victory that helped topple a dictatorship.

Another way is to encourage the general public to despise Labour – something that Cameron has avoided. There is plenty to go out, for instance:-

  1. The structural deficit (the bit that needs to be closed) is Brown’s fault. I estimate by 2015, around £750bn (over 50%) of the national debt will be as a consequence of the deficits built up in the boom years.
  2. Uncovering the partisan attitudes of the civil service and the political appointees. Encouraging whistleblowers and conducting audits may help.
  3. Launching enquiries and audits into major projects – for instance the widening of the M25, the NHS computer system, GPs pay rises, estimating the cost of Brown’s raid on pensions, why the banks got out of line etc.
  4. Tories emphasising unconditional forgiveness to those who have been taken in by the Labour Spin doctrines that got us in this mess.
  5. Emphasize that Labour have betrayed their core voters.
  6. Launching the initiatives to minimize the pain and maximize the gain from the necessary cuts.
  7. Changing the emphasis from promoting the interests of party/ideology to the government serving the people.

 

The Tories should do this not only to drive home the contribution that Labour has had in our current crisis, but also to give a positive vision for the future. One where governments will learn from past mistakes and learn the limits of what they can accomplish.

The Two Faces of Labour

The gaffe and very humble apology later by Gordon Brown may have a significant impact on the General Election. But, as I wrote on John Redwood’s blog, there is a deeper public v private face to the Labour campaign.

In recent years our politics has become too like those of the countries that have defaulted in the past – like Brazil, Argentina and like Greece has become now. It has become about presenting a public face of concern and competency, whilst privately just wanting power and prestige. It is also about defending of that image by denigrating the opposition and distorting the reality of events to an extent that George Orwell would not have imagined.

 As a result, we had a structural deficit built up in the boom years and a refusal to recognize that growing debt was an issue. We have delay upon delay about tackling the issue, or even recognizing the problem. Now every minor proposal to tackle it is met with cries of destroying public services and ruined lives.

 The false face of the boom years and the delayed recognition means we have a much bigger problem. It will mean more painful cuts and more growth-damaging tax rises. However, like with personal debt problems, being open and honest there is a severe problem is the first step to solving it. Then you prioritize what is most important, both by area and within each area. That priority should be based on meeting needs – on serving the public – and not on maintaining jobs.

 As part of that recognition, we should divide the deficit between the structural part (using OECD guidelines) and the cyclical part.

 Like with a financial plan for families who have got into debt, we can see, year-by-year, how that deficit is reducing. It should not be enshrined in law, but at least will show how the pain of narrowing the deficit is bringing the nation back to financial health. Then we can also explain how targets are not being met – e.g. through growth faltering, or failing to meet targets.

We need, as a nation, to admit to the false face that all put on. We should now shun the spin, and recognise the poor state of the public finances so that we can repair the damage with the minimum of adverse consequences.

Labour Totally Loses It

Labour seem to have totally lost any sense of proportion when

  1. They talk about less than cuts of 0.5% of GDP sending the UK back into recession when most of that will due to not replacing leavers.
  2. When Gordon Brown is angry about other parties proposed Cuts in child Tax Credits and trust funds. Something that would hit the wealthier families. Or Ed Balls saying it was a “mistake to ghettoise the welfare state”.
  3. They attack the Conservatives innovative education policies, that could push up standards, because of potential minor budget cuts in LEAs that lost pupils.
  4. On cancer care, the target of seeing a specialist within two weeks is mostly met, but survival rates for most cancers are amongst the lowest in Europe.

 

Until last autumn they refused to discuss how to tackle the £70bn structural deficit they created in the boom years, instead parroting on about “Labour Investment v. Tory Cuts”. They then refused to have a full spending review until after the election.

Labour have further refused to answer questions on the Banks and the Deficit.

Labour are desperate. If they come third, they will be racked by in-fighting more gruesome than in the early 80s. The Lib-Dems will overtake them as the major left-of-centre party.

As a result, Labour lack any sense of proportion. Their very desperation makes them unqualified to govern, or even represent any of the constituencies.

 

(this is an updated version of a comment made on John Redwood’s blog today)

Lib-Dem Manifesto – an appeal to the Labour Left

After Nick Clegg produced the best performance in last night’s ITV debate, it is time to examine their manifesto. Others has so far failed. John Redwood attacks the £5bn hole in the Lib-Dem figures, but misses the more important bits. Brian Barder on LabourList has clearly not read the Manifesto and Tom Harris thinking that the policies are irrelevant. However, the manifesto is significant for anyone (like me) sad enough to read the thing. In detail it is a direct appeal to the Liberal Left. It is far more re-distributive than Labour, whilst also scrapping some of Labour’s more authoritarian policies like the ID cards.

For instance

-         In the army, reducing the top brass to fund increased pay for the lower ranks.

-         Tax increases for the rich (CGT, pension tax relief, mansion tax)

-         Anti tax avoidance measures.

-         Hitting big business with higher corporation tax.

-         Devaluing the Nations investment in the Banks by a banking levy; by breaking them up; through state sponsored competition in the form of a PostBank; and a UK Infrastructure Bank (high interest safe returns for “green investment”).

-         Cancelling a replacement fo the Trident nulear missile system. They say they will look for cheaper alternatives, but this is unlikely to happen soon with even bigger cuts in other areas necessary to pay it.

Added to this the fact that Labour have created a structural deficit that will undermine public spending for a generation, and you have a strategy to overtake Labour as the party of the left. Perhaps it is Nick Clegg’s strategy to emphasise this in the third debate when Gordon Brown thinks he will avoid Clegg’s criticism.

Labour Down to 120 seats in 2010?

Could Labour really be reduced to 120 seat’s at the next general election? Not impossible, but would hand the Conservatives a poison chalice

Jackie Ashley claims in the Guardian.

“Some Labour people may think I’m sounding too gloomy, but those who have been privy to recent private polling are a lot more than gloomy. This suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory. As ministers look for jobs to keep themselves going after politics, a Miliband move to Europe looks sensible.”

Most polling data based on even swing would give Labour over 200 seats, with the Conservatives getting a majority of 80 to 100. But  this result may be at the extreme end, but should not be unexpected. Compared with the Conservatives in 1997
1. Labour are polling lower in the polls.

2. There is greater de-seated resentment. Labour are not just out of touch, they have

3. Gordon Brown seems less capable than John Major at the job. Furthermore, he shows it. He is nervous, repetitive and cliché-ridden.

In 1997, many voted to punish the Tories. Next year it will be voting to punish Labour. It is not something a Conservative should revel in, as Labour has bred a deep distrust in politics in general (through their spinning and ignoring parliament) along with decimating the nation’s finances. So the Conservatives will have to rebuild trust whilst pushing through deeply unpopular policies.

A word of caution. Although ConservativeHome and Politicalbetting both recognize Jackie Ashley as being close to Labour and a reliable source, the comment is made in a long article on how the Europe question could damage the Conservatives. So maybe we could have a Lib-Dem government?

Labour Loses Ipswich by-election?

This morning on BBC1 Breakfast programme Emily Thornberry MP acted as the Labour Party spokesperson for their crushing defeat in the Norwich North by-election.

Repeatedly she mentioned the IPSWICH by-election. This is despite having been in Norwich two days previously.

This is the same MP who would like women MP’s to be taken more seriously? If that is the case, then the Labour party should keep her off the airwaves.

(Feature was at 8.05am)

Child Poverty Bill – Another Labour Poison Pill?

Yesterday the government put forward the Child Poverty Bill, with mandatory targets for reducing poverty.  It is utter folly.

For those that really care about helping the poorest, meeting a particular target is not the way to go about it. It is fairly easy (and relatively cheap) to get a large number just below the poverty line to move just above it.  

 

However, people should consider the following.

 

1. The Measure is in relation to Median Income.

 It is not about actual living standards (how much you can buy with the income), but a relative measure compared with the median income. But at the same time the government’s environmental policies are lowering living standards – by pushing up fuel bills in the future and food bills (through the competition from bio-fuels). The poor (who spend larger proportions of their incomes on these items) are seeing their living standards fall, even though their “real” incomes might be rising and income inequality decreasing.

Further, if indirect taxes are increased (VAT, excise duties on alcohol and tobacco), then this will again fall disproportionately on the poor. Taxes will need to increase to reduce the deficit, and VAT is a good candidate.

 

2. Standard of life is more important than standard of living.

However, there is something much worse. The more government determines the income of people, the less control people have for influencing their own lives. In trying to eliminate material poverty, government will foster hopelessness. During the Euro-elections, Channel 4 did a survey of how people voted, concentrating on BNP voters. A distinguishing feature was that

 “Just 19 per cent of BNP voters are “confident that my family will have the opportunities to prosper in the years ahead”. This compares with 59 per cent of Labour voters, 47 per cent of Lib Dem and Green voters, and 42 per cent of Conservative voters.”

 

So a poison-pill policy directed at a future Tory government may help enlarge the disaffected underclass. Another example of Labour preparing for opposition.

 

 

More analysis can be found at
http://manicbeancounter.wordpress.com/2009/06/10/giving-the-bnp-voters-a-message-of-hope/

And
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/who+voted+bnp+and+why/3200557

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